Triumph Plan · Grovetown, GA 30813

$275,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Triumph is a 1,566 square foot, two-story plan from Declaration Homes by Ivey Homes. With three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and an open-concept layout, this plan proves that smart design matters more than square footage. The main level flows effortlessly from a generous family room into the kitchen and cafe, creating a connected, comfortable space that feels larger than you might expect. A pantry and powder room keep the main level practical and polished, while upstairs the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bath and closet. Two additional bedrooms share a well-placed full bath, rounding out an upstairs that works for families, roommates, or anyone who simply needs a little more room. The Triumph is the perfect starting point for those who refuse to compromise on quality. Big on character, built to last.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 76 days

🏗️ New construction. The $275,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,967.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#57 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 724 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,786 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,967
• List price: $275,500
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
740 Woodvine Dr Unit Tp174	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+0%)	2mo	$315,000	$201	83
6230 Canterbury Farms Pkwy Unit Tp123	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+5%)	3mo	$329,900	$200	80
2806 Fernhill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+1%)	8mo	$317,900	$200	80
751 Woodvine Dr Unit Tp157	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,486 (-5%)	0mo	$299,900	$202	80
425 Tillery Park Dr Unit Tp141	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+5%)	4mo	$320,000	$194	78
756 Woodvine Dr Unit TP180	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+1%)	9mo	$313,421	$199	78
746 Woodvine Dr Unit Tp176	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+1%)	8mo	$320,000	$203	77
1811 Harbury Dr Unit Tp100	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+10%)	4mo	$323,000	$188	74
2063 Limerick Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+6%)	8mo	$309,000	$186	68
232 Claudia Drive Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,612 (+3%)	9mo	$260,000	$161	62
753 Woodvine Dr Unit Tp156	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,800 (+15%)	4mo	$325,500	$181	61
223 Claudia Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-7%)	4mo	$252,000	$173	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-95,396
• Equity at exit: $48,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-148,090
• Equity at exit: $28,097

Cash invested: $90,991 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30813

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 724
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,874/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $236,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-388	-5% $-500	+0% $-612	+5% $-724	+10% $-837
Rent	-10% $-776	-5% $-694	+0% $-612	+5% $-530	+10% $-449
Rate	-1.0pp $-449	-0.5pp $-530	base $-612	+0.5pp $-696	+1.0pp $-782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,242
• Closing costs: $9,749
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
738 Woodvine Dr Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,135	$1.20	21d	1	0.30mi
2109 Kinsale Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1956	$1,995	$1.02	21d	1	0.65mi
2467 Newbury Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2236	$2,300	$1.03	14d	1	0.68mi
918 Williford Run Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,195	$1.00	14d	1	0.76mi
1721 Dunmore Ave Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,200	$1.04	14d	1	0.85mi
3615 Penrith Dr Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,125	$1.15	44d	1	0.86mi
1007 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	44d	1	0.87mi
456 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1652	$1,995	$1.21	44d	1	0.88mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	44d	1	0.91mi
484 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	2128	$2,200	$1.03	24d	1	0.91mi
488 Brantley Cove Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	2161	$2,100	$0.97	44d	1	0.91mi
1042 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	21d	1	0.92mi
1042 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,900	$1.23	24d	1	0.92mi
1055 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,875	$1.22	14d	1	0.94mi
1058 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,875	$1.22	24d	1	0.95mi
1063 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1656	$1,975	$1.19	24d	1	0.96mi
1066 Linsmore Ave Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,720	$1.09	14d	1	0.96mi
3915 Griese Ln Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$1,975	$1.03	44d	1	1.14mi
3926 Griese Ln Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1936	$2,231	$1.15	24d	1	1.15mi
724 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,870	$1.16	24d	1	1.23mi
5336 Nikki Way Unit 1 Grovetown, GA	4.0	2.5	1755	$1,895	$1.08	44d	1	1.26mi
5336 Nikki Way Grovetown, GA	4.0	3.0	1755	$1,895	$1.08	24d	1	1.26mi
703 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,750	$1.13	44d	1	1.30mi
703 Buddy Ct Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1545	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	1.30mi
943 Erika Ln Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,700	$1.32	14d	1	1.31mi
1117 Jolly LN Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,995	$1.37	14d	1	1.38mi
1115 Jolly Ln , GA	3.0	2.5	1461	$2,035	$1.39	14d	1	1.38mi
547 Cranberry Cir Grovetown, GA	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,650	$1.19	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,500 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,500 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,500 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,500 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,500 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,500 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,500 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,500 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    listed $275,500 Active 844-char remark

    Show marketing remark (844 chars)

    The Triumph is a 1,566 square foot, two-story plan from Declaration Homes by Ivey Homes. With three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and an open-concept layout, this plan proves that smart design matters more than square footage. The main level flows effortlessly from a generous family room into the kitchen and cafe, creating a connected, comfortable space that feels larger than you might expect. A pantry and powder room keep the main level practical and polished, while upstairs the primary suite offers a private retreat with its own bath and closet. Two additional bedrooms share a well-placed full bath, rounding out an upstairs that works for families, roommates, or anyone who simply needs a little more room. The Triumph is the perfect starting point for those who refuse to compromise on quality. Big on character, built to last.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,874
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$13,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Grovetown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #5433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 154,184 people
• City population: 52,466
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 52,466
• Household income: $86,923
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.24%
• Current HPI: 233.821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $275,500 Zillow