2309 Shaded Spring Trl · Kachina Village, AZ 86005

$795,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,042 sqft · Land · 424 Days on market

Built 2025 6,825 sqft lot $389/sqft · at area comps Est $791k · at est. $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lot 32 - The Sycamore floorplan, a functional single-level home that blends comfort, style, and flexibility. This spacious 2,042 sq. ft. plan features an inviting open-concept layout, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining area, and living room perfect for modern living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, the Sycamore provides effortless living with modern comfort. A convenient 2 car garage completes the design, making the Sycamore the ideal blend of practicality and contemporary charm. The Highlands at Tovar Springs, Flagstaff's newest luxury community where elevated living meets breathtaking natural beauty. Nestled within the world's largest stand of majestic Ponderosa Pines, this exclusive enclave offers a true mountain lifestyle without sacrificing modern convenience. Residents can enjoy the serenity of nature while staying seamlessly connected to everything they need. Perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, providing endless opportunities for hiking, exploring, and embracing Flagstaff's stunning landscapes. Discover the ideal blend of luxury, adventure, and tranquility at The Highlands at Tovar Springs.

Key facts

• New construction
• Mountain living
• Beautiful flagstaff

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PONDEROSA PINES
• MOUNTAIN LIVING
• BEAUTIFUL FLAGSTAFF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $795k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (61.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (64.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (64.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 3.4% in Kachina Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#85 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Manuel Demiguel Elementary School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 579 students, 19% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($700k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,966 (64.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.09%
• DSCR: 0.20
• GRM: 23.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $790,653
• List price: $795,000
• Delta: 0.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-327,272
• Equity at exit: $118,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.21×
• Total profit: $-490,868
• Equity at exit: $68,737

Cash invested: $222,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86005

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 23.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$994 /mo · $11,925/yr
• Insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-3,355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,106

Max offer price $309,536

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,806	-5% $-3,080	+0% $-3,355	+5% $-3,630	+10% $-3,904
Rent	-10% $-3,581	-5% $-3,468	+0% $-3,355	+5% $-3,242	+10% $-3,129
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,955	-0.5pp $-3,153	base $-3,355	+0.5pp $-3,561	+1.0pp $-3,771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,750
• Closing costs: $23,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2145 William Palmer Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	1756	$12,000	$6.83	45d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $795,000 Active 424 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $795,000 Active 422 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $795,000 Active 421 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $795,000 Active 420 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $795,000 Active 419 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $795,000 Active 418 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $795,000 Active 416 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $795,000 Active 415 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $795,000 Active 413 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $795,000 Active 412 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $795,000 Active 411 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $795,000 Active 410 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $795,000 Active 407 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $795,000 Active 406 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $795,000 Active 405 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $795,000 Active 404 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $795,000 Active 403 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $795,000 Active 402 DOM
19. 2025-04-23
    listed $795,000 Active 1142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1142 chars)

    Lot 32 - The Sycamore floorplan, a functional single-level home that blends comfort, style, and flexibility. This spacious 2,042 sq. ft. plan features an inviting open-concept layout, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining area, and living room perfect for modern living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, the Sycamore provides effortless living with modern comfort. A convenient 2 car garage completes the design, making the Sycamore the ideal blend of practicality and contemporary charm. The Highlands at Tovar Springs, Flagstaff's newest luxury community where elevated living meets breathtaking natural beauty. Nestled within the world's largest stand of majestic Ponderosa Pines, this exclusive enclave offers a true mountain lifestyle without sacrificing modern convenience. Residents can enjoy the serenity of nature while staying seamlessly connected to everything they need. Perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, providing endless opportunities for hiking, exploring, and embracing Flagstaff's stunning landscapes. Discover the ideal blend of luxury, adventure, and tranquility at The Highlands at Tovar Springs.

20. 2025-04-23
    listed $795,000 Active 1142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1142 chars)

    Lot 32 - The Sycamore floorplan, a functional single-level home that blends comfort, style, and flexibility. This spacious 2,042 sq. ft. plan features an inviting open-concept layout, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining area, and living room perfect for modern living and entertaining. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, the Sycamore provides effortless living with modern comfort. A convenient 2 car garage completes the design, making the Sycamore the ideal blend of practicality and contemporary charm. The Highlands at Tovar Springs, Flagstaff's newest luxury community where elevated living meets breathtaking natural beauty. Nestled within the world's largest stand of majestic Ponderosa Pines, this exclusive enclave offers a true mountain lifestyle without sacrificing modern convenience. Residents can enjoy the serenity of nature while staying seamlessly connected to everything they need. Perfect for outdoor enthusiasts, providing endless opportunities for hiking, exploring, and embracing Flagstaff's stunning landscapes. Discover the ideal blend of luxury, adventure, and tranquility at The Highlands at Tovar Springs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,532
• − Property taxes: −$11,925
• − Insurance: −$3,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,745
• − Management: −$2,745
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$23,127
• Taxable loss: −$56,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Kachina Village

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #13165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,961
• Household income: $87,942
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 830.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Native American 9% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.98%
• Current HPI: 408.8541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.13%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-23 Listed $795,000 NAZMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $795,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.