12471 Owen Ave · Stony Creek, VA 23882

$29,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 6,647 sqft lot $27/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in Sussex County! Opportunity awaits at 12471 Owen Ave, Stony Creek, VA 23882. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath Cape Cod/Cottage-style home sits on approximately 0.1526 acres and offers excellent potential for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for an affordable project property. Conveniently located just minutes from I-95, this property provides easy access for commuting while still offering the small-town charm and quiet setting of Sussex County. The home features two bedrooms upstairs with a full bath, plus an additional bedroom downstairs with a half bath, living room, dining area, kitchen space, and enclosed front porch area. The property has been vacant for several year

Key facts

• Restoration project
• Rental investment
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FIX-AND-FLIP OPPORTUNITY
• RENTAL INVESTMENT
• RESTORATION PROJECT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Year built unknown
• Exterior features: Public water

Interior

• Flooring: Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Partially carpeted floors; Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#255 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sussex County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #111 of 131 in VA (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($208 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $29,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.27%
• DSCR: 6.97
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,350
• List price: $29,950
• Delta: -70.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.13×
• Total profit: $68,192
• Equity at exit: $18,575

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.35×
• Total profit: $153,897
• Equity at exit: $33,468

Cash invested: $8,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23882

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,950

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,488
• Closing costs: $898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $29,950 Active 1064-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,678
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$871
• Taxable income: $11,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,752
• After-tax cash flow: $8,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sussex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103780
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -46.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4198
• State rank: #111 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stony Creek

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #8654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Creek, VA
• Population (ZIP): 1,967

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,207 people
• By 2030: 10,897 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 10,451 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 9,936 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 8,643 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 6,908 · -38.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 39% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovene 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 23.8pp · 2024: 4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.4 2020: D+11.9 2016: D+16.3 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Current HPI: 160.116
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $29,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $40 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.