8027 Picketts Ct. Ct · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Condo public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1987 $400/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 2 BR, 2 bath, newly remodeled kitchen, berber carpet, inside laundry. Spacious lanai, 2nd fl., pool, gym, spa, community center, golf course picnic areas. AC 2 yrs old, 5 fans.

Key facts

• Split plan layout
• Balcony view
• Walk in closet

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN LAYOUT
• WALK IN CLOSET
• BALCONY VIEW
• WELL MAINTAINED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $400; Community pool; Cable TV provided through association

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Greens At The Heather; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor; Washer; Central heating; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,602
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,928
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $739/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $199	+0% $164	+5% $128	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $97	+0% $164	+5% $230	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $195	base $164	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7744 St Andrews Blvd Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,450	$1.27	25d	1	0.36mi
7569 Heather Walk Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1211	$1,595	$1.32	18d	1	0.45mi
8992 Hernando Way Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,695	$1.14	5d	1	0.51mi
7425 Galloway Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	13d	1	0.76mi
7251 Mc Ginnes Ct Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,695	$1.25	5d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   price $124,900
3. 2025-12-12
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2005-03-18
   soldstatus $90,000
5. 2005-03-14
   soldstatus $90,000 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Lovely 2 BR, 2 bath, newly remodeled kitchen, berber carpet, inside laundry. Spacious lanai, 2nd fl., pool, gym, spa, community center, golf course picnic areas. AC 2 yrs old, 5 fans.

6. 2005-02-01
   listed $95,000 183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (183 chars)

   Lovely 2 BR, 2 bath, newly remodeled kitchen, berber carpet, inside laundry. Spacious lanai, 2nd fl., pool, gym, spa, community center, golf course picnic areas. AC 2 yrs old, 5 fans.

7. 2000-08-02
   soldstatus $53,000
8. 1987-08-01
   soldstatus $53,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $739 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$739
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+134.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $124,900 HCAR
• 2025-12-12 Listed $145,000 HCAR
• 2005-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-14 Sold (MLS) $90,000 HCAR
• 2005-02-01 Listed $95,000 HCAR
• 2000-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $739 · -25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.