9589 Hopkins Rd · Cleveland, NY 13316

$174,900

2 bd · None ba · 384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2001 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for some peace and quiet? Or maybe some ATV riding on the trails just 3/10mi down the road or on your own 10.32 acres of land, with some old logging trails on there. If hunting is your thing, there are two tree stands on the property, with a mix of hardwoods and some wetlands. The C4 Snowmobile Trail is just 2 mi away. This completely-renovated off-grid cabin comes with a new generator with warranty, and the furnishings stay. There is a bedroom on the main floor and the cozy loft is the 2nd bedroom. There is a full bathroom with shower. Nice kitchen with two refrigerators that both stay and a propane-adapted gas oven range. The new wrap-around deck comes with a Flagstone grill and gas grill, that both stay. There is 1,060 feet of road frontage that assures your privacy when you need to get away from it all. This town road is plowed year round, so you can enjoy outdoor beauty and recreation at any time of year. Come take a look. This one is a must-see.

Key facts

• Gas grill
• 10.32 acres of land
• Flagstone grill

Tags

• 10.32 ACRES OF LAND
• NEW GENERATOR WITH WARRANTY
• NEW WRAP-AROUND DECK
• FLAGSTONE GRILL
• GAS GRILL
• 060 FEET OF ROAD FRONTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (52.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (52.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $175k implies a 695% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,701 (52.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.94%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $69,353
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $224,395
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13316

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $920/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,350

Max offer price $103,263

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-307	-5% $-356	+0% $-406	+5% $-455	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-439	+0% $-406	+5% $-372	+10% $-339
Rate	-1.0pp $-317	-0.5pp $-361	base $-406	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Ready for some peace and quiet? Or maybe some ATV riding on the trails just 3/10mi down the road or on your own 10.32 acres of land, with some old logging trails on there. If hunting is your thing, there are two tree stands on the property, with a mix of hardwoods and some wetlands. The C4 Snowmobile Trail is just 2 mi away. This completely-renovated off-grid cabin comes with a new generator with warranty, and the furnishings stay. There is a bedroom on the main floor and the cozy loft is the 2nd bedroom. There is a full bathroom with shower. Nice kitchen with two refrigerators that both stay and a propane-adapted gas oven range. The new wrap-around deck comes with a Flagstone grill and gas grill, that both stay. There is 1,060 feet of road frontage that assures your privacy when you need to get away from it all. This town road is plowed year round, so you can enjoy outdoor beauty and recreation at any time of year. Come take a look. This one is a must-see.

2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Ready for some peace and quiet? Or maybe some ATV riding on the trails just 3/10mi down the road or on your own 10.32 acres of land, with some old logging trails on there. If hunting is your thing, there are two tree stands on the property, with a mix of hardwoods and some wetlands. The C4 Snowmobile Trail is just 2 mi away. This completely-renovated off-grid cabin comes with a new generator with warranty, and the furnishings stay. There is a bedroom on the main floor and the cozy loft is the 2nd bedroom. There is a full bathroom with shower. Nice kitchen with two refrigerators that both stay and a propane-adapted gas oven range. The new wrap-around deck comes with a Flagstone grill and gas grill, that both stay. There is 1,060 feet of road frontage that assures your privacy when you need to get away from it all. This town road is plowed year round, so you can enjoy outdoor beauty and recreation at any time of year. Come take a look. This one is a must-see.

3. 2026-04-22
   listed $174,900 Active 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Ready for some peace and quiet? Or maybe some ATV riding on the trails just 3/10mi down the road or on your own 10.32 acres of land, with some old logging trails on there. If hunting is your thing, there are two tree stands on the property, with a mix of hardwoods and some wetlands. The C4 Snowmobile Trail is just 2 mi away. This completely-renovated off-grid cabin comes with a new generator with warranty, and the furnishings stay. There is a bedroom on the main floor and the cozy loft is the 2nd bedroom. There is a full bathroom with shower. Nice kitchen with two refrigerators that both stay and a propane-adapted gas oven range. The new wrap-around deck comes with a Flagstone grill and gas grill, that both stay. There is 1,060 feet of road frontage that assures your privacy when you need to get away from it all. This town road is plowed year round, so you can enjoy outdoor beauty and recreation at any time of year. Come take a look. This one is a must-see.

4. 2006-11-06
   soldstatus $22,000
5. 2000-08-31
   soldstatus $30,000
6. 2000-08-31
   soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $920 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,938 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 110.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$920
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$804
• − Management: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$8,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,978
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #23552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,924

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.23%
• Current HPI: 316.4996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+483.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2006-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records
• 2000-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $920 · -17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.