2648 Pierce St · Gary, IN 46407

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1920 8,756 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper house in Gary Indiana. This 2 story home sit on a large . 20 acre lot. Low Taxes.

Key facts

• 8,756 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Vacant occupant status

Exterior

• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Built in 1920; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Assessor-provided lot information
• Exterior features: Other view

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Additional bedrooms (at least 2 other bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; Crawl space basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry/utility features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.4% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,551/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 392% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $416 of equity ($172 loan paydown + $244 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,526 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 182.41%
• DSCR: 9.12
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1209 W 21st Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+0%)	4mo	$55,000	$41	67
2691 Jackson St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+2%)	6mo	$103,000	$77	66
2374 Madison St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,317 (-0%)	8mo	$115,000	$87	62
2305 Pierce St	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,372 (+4%)	12mo	$139,000	$101	61
2713 Jefferson St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,273 (-4%)	4mo	$175,000	$137	60
2370 Buchanan St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,464 (+11%)	13mo	$120,000	$82	57
2361 Monroe St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+2%)	14mo	$46,000	$34	53
2613 Harrison St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+7%)	15mo	$135,000	$96	53
2579 Madison St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,225 (-7%)	13mo	$45,000	$37	45
2644 Adams St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+7%)	12mo	$164,000	$116	43
496 W 22nd Pl	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+11%)	16mo	$134,900	$92	30
2231 Garfield St	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,138 (-14%)	17mo	$127,000	$112	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.75×
• Total profit: $67,959
• Equity at exit: $8,474

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.63×
• Total profit: $150,817
• Equity at exit: $11,241

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46407

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $291/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $209

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Pierce St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,950	$1.08	44d	1	0.07mi
840 W 19th Ave Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,150	$1.11	19d	1	0.95mi
1744 Tyler St Unit 2 Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	0.99mi
3449 Buchanan St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1301	$1,395	$1.07	44d	1	1.03mi
1572 Polk St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	1d	1	1.07mi
2022 Massachusetts St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	965	$1,000	$1.04	1d	1	1.12mi
2300 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	19d	1	1.14mi
2157 Marshall Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,295	$0.78	44d	1	1.17mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	1d	1	1.24mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	4d	1	1.24mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Unit B Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	989	$1,150	$1.16	1d	1	1.24mi
2425 Prospect St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	1d	1	1.25mi
2061 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	975	$950	$0.97	44d	1	1.30mi
3612 Van Buren St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1534	$1,600	$1.04	1d	1	1.30mi
3395 Pennsylvania St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	1d	1	1.40mi
3708 Harrison St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	904	$1,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.40mi
2306 Vermont St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,300	$1.08	1d	1	1.45mi
3788 Lincoln St Gary, IN	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	10d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $24,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $24,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$291
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $13,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,143
• After-tax cash flow: $9,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577
• Household income: $28,526
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 392.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 253.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $24,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed $26,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $24,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $291 · +70.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.