508 Lakeside Ranch Way · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 479 Days on market

Built 1976 3,999 sqft lot $145/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY THIS WELL KEPT FURNISHED MANUFACTURED HOME IN GATED 55 AND OVER COMMUNITY. THIS PROPERTY IS IN A CO-OP. OUTSIDE OF HOME RECENTLY PAINTED 2026. THE AIR CONDITIONER IS NEW IN 2025. KING AND QUEEN SIZE BEDS WITH MATCHING DRESSERS, SOFA BED, 70 IN TV, LEATHER COUCH AND ROCKING RECLINERS. SUN ROOM HAS TV WITH LARGE BAR WITH STOOLS. LAMINATE FLOORS IN ALL ROOMS EXCEPT BEDROOMS HAVE CARPET. BRING YOUR TOOTHBRUSH, EVERYTHING ELSE IS READY FOR YOU TO MOVE IN. ENJOY SCHEDULED ACTIVITIES COMMUNITY HEATED POOL, LIBRARY, SHUFFLEBOARD, HORSESHOES, BILLIARDS, AND MORE. TRAILER STORAGE AREA AND LAUNDRY. SELF CONTAINED WATER AND SEWER SYSTEM WITH BACKUP GENERATORS. NO PETS EXCEPT SERVICE ANIMALS. NO M

Key facts

• Gated community
• Sun room
• 3,999 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SUN ROOM
• COMMUNITY HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Third-party listing
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,740; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Lakeside Ranch for Mobile Homes HOA — monthly fee $145 (association approval required); Community clubhouse and pool; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Buyer approval required to join HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Golf cart parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Lake Henry access (community dock/fees may apply)
• Home design: Mobile home — double wide; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated building area ~1,434 sq ft; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; In-county, paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 479 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 479 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.86%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $25,553
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $67,809
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,613/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $646	+0% $624	+5% $602	+10% $579
Rent	-10% $489	-5% $557	+0% $624	+5% $692	+10% $759
Rate	-1.0pp $664	-0.5pp $644	base $624	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 479 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 478 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 477 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 476 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 474 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 471 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 470 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 469 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 468 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 465 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 463 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 462 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 461 DOM
14. 2026-03-28
    price $79,000
15. 2025-11-05
    price $88,000
16. 2025-07-02
    price $105,000
17. 2025-02-24
    listed $129,000 Active
18. 2006-03-21
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 1993-11-01
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,613
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $6,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,623
• After-tax cash flow: $5,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+618.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $79,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $88,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,613 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.