1128 Forest Ln · Tavares, FL 32778

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 334 Days on market

Built 2007 7,600 sqft lot Est $384k · 45% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Not a short sale-response to offers usually within three business days, can close in 30-45 days. Closing cost assistance may be available subject to seller approval & terms. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/13/2017(20 days from initial MLS list date). Homesteps Financing is available.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered carport
• Florida room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• OVERSIZED STORAGE SHED
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.17 acre (approx. 80 x 95); Living area reported as 1,720 sq ft; total building area 2,401 sq ft
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $50; total annual fees $600; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required; $50 monthly; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; fence restrictions; Association recreation owned; Clubhouse; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water (canal/lake available for irrigation); Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (triple wide); Single-story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Sliding doors; Exterior storage; City limits lot; Level lot; Paved; Canal and lake access (freshwater, Chain of Lakes)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $210k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,560
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2323 Vindale Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-9%)	7mo	$340,000	$217	66
31714 Terrace Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (-1%)	10mo	$380,000	$223	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-12,466
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $23,038
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $732/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,645

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Juniper Way Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	18d	1	0.38mi
4659 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,125	$1.21	5d	1	0.55mi
4721 Treasure Cay Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.58mi
4950 Marsh Harbor Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,050	$1.67	4d	1	0.79mi
4567 Barbuda Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.81mi
3224 Manatee Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,600	$1.02	4d	1	0.98mi
500 E Rosewood Ln Unit 154 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	1.01mi
459 E Rosewood Ln #157 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	22d	1	1.01mi
1585 Dead River Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,990	$1.89	24d	1	1.16mi
465 Oak Dr Tavares, FL	3.0	3.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	1.16mi
741 W Rosewood Ln Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,195	$1.06	3d	1	1.18mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	24d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 329 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $210,000 Active 320 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 319 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 316 DOM
14. 2025-11-18
    price $210,000
15. 2025-09-25
    price $220,000
16. 2025-07-19
    listed $225,000 Active
17. 2025-01-07
    historical
18. 2024-11-27
    price $228,900
19. 2024-10-26
    price $229,000
20. 2024-08-28
    price $239,900
21. 2024-08-16
    listed $241,900 Active
22. 2017-07-20
    soldstatus $87,000 Sold 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Not a short sale-response to offers usually within three business days, can close in 30-45 days. Closing cost assistance may be available subject to seller approval & terms. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/13/2017(20 days from initial MLS list date). Homesteps Financing is available.

23. 2017-06-05
    status Pending 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Not a short sale-response to offers usually within three business days, can close in 30-45 days. Closing cost assistance may be available subject to seller approval & terms. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/13/2017(20 days from initial MLS list date). Homesteps Financing is available.

24. 2017-05-20
    price $89,900 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Not a short sale-response to offers usually within three business days, can close in 30-45 days. Closing cost assistance may be available subject to seller approval & terms. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/13/2017(20 days from initial MLS list date). Homesteps Financing is available.

25. 2017-04-25
    listed $104,900 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Not a short sale-response to offers usually within three business days, can close in 30-45 days. Closing cost assistance may be available subject to seller approval & terms. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/13/2017(20 days from initial MLS list date). Homesteps Financing is available.

26. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus $64,000
27. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus $64,000
28. 2006-01-31
    listed $69,900
29. 2005-02-28
    soldstatus $45,000
30. 2004-08-27
    soldstatus $32,000
31. 2004-06-21
    listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,011/yr (+$84/mo · 138.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$732
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $3,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+425.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $228,900 Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $229,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $239,900 Beaches MLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $241,900 Beaches MLS
• 2017-07-20 Sold (MLS) $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-20 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Listed $104,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (MLS) $64,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-31 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-21 Listed $40,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $732 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.