189 River Rd · Albany, NY 12077

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1932 7,405 sqft lot Est $373k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super neat and clean in Bethlehem Schools! Move-in ready, hardwoods, upstairs laundry, many updates! Garage, new oil tank, quiet setting. USDA financing eligible!

Key facts

• Many updates
• Hardwoods
• Quiet setting

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• HARDWOODS
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY
• MANY UPDATES
• QUIET SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has detached garage; One garage space; Total of six parking spaces; Off-street parking and driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Back yard fencing; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second level; One half bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-337/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#129 in NY, #2,083 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Bethlehem Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #90 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Central Middle School (math 50% / reading 69%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 923 students, 14% FRL); Bethlehem Central Senior High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 1,364 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $249k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $218,279 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Retreat House Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,328 (+5%)	17mo	$245,000	$184	71
18 Joshua Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-1%)	10mo	$370,000	$294	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,085
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,738
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12077

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,116/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $244,038

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $42	+0% $-28	+5% $-99	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-114	+0% $-28	+5% $58	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $35	base $-28	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Weiser St Glenmont, NY	3.0	1.0	988	$2,700	$2.73	23d	1	1.05mi
371 Route 9W Glenmont, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,749	$1.87	16d	1	1.26mi
7 Patterson Dr Glenmont, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1146	$1,992	$1.74	16d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 162-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   listed $249,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,162 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,116
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604710
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $94,967
• Composite: 65.31/100
• National rank: #488
• State rank: #90 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albany

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #2083

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,921
• Population (ZIP): 6,733

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.41%
• Current HPI: 291.4513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+221.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $249,000 Global MLS
• 2004-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,116 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.