236 Utica St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1953 5,000 sqft lot $175/sqft · 17% below area Est $263k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 236 Utica St in the heart of Tonawanda , located on a quiet , neighborhood street , this charming 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home is move in ready and full of value. Featuring a complete tear off roof ( 2023) and updated mechanicals , the home offers peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy the convenience of an attached garage , a fully fenced backyard , and included kitchen appliances . Showings begins immediately . offers will be considered as received however sellers reserve the right to set an offers deadline . HIGHEST AND BEST ONLY.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Updated mechanicals
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMPLETE TEAR OFF ROOF
• UPDATED MECHANICALS
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• INCLUDED KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story existing home
• Construction: Composite siding; Copper plumbing; Architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation; Full basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $219k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,171 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,654
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -16.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Bannard Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,263 (+1%)	9mo	$240,000	$190	70
81 Winkler Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-3%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	64
157 Newell Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-9%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	61
299 Newell Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,103 (-12%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	58
17 Nicholas Dr N	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,281 (+3%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	56
320 Joseph Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+8%)	12mo	$251,000	$187	54
115 Nicholas Dr N	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (+1%)	14mo	$235,000	$186	48
53 Winkler Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-15%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	48
18 Joseph Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (-12%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	48
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,108 (-11%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	45
23 Winkler Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-15%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	34
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (+15%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,012
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,478
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,515/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $217,213

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $52	+0% $-10	+5% $-72	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-82	+0% $-10	+5% $62	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $46	base $-10	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.55mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	2d	9	0.69mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	0.99mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.16mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.21mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	2d	35	1.38mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	2d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 548-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $219,000 Active 548-char remark
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-11-04
   price $219,000
5. 2025-10-13
   listed $225,000 Active
6. 1994-12-16
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,515 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,108 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,515
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$932
• After-tax cash flow: $811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $219,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $219,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $225,000 WNYREIS
• 1994-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,515 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.