4141 Deep Creek Rd #212 · Fremont, CA 94555

$214,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this inviting and comfortable 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence, thoughtfully designed for everyday living. The spacious kitchen features a breakfast nook, gas cooktop, built-in oven, dishwasher, pantry closet, and ample workspace for meal preparation. A separate dining area offers convenient built-in storage, while the living room and family room boast vaulted ceilings that create an open and airy atmosphere filled with natural light. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a single-sink vanity, tile countertop, tub/shower combination, and an oversized soaking tub perfect for unwinding at the end of the day. The secondary bathroom includes a single-sink vanity and stal

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Gas cooktop
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• GAS COOKTOP
• BUILT-IN OVEN
• DISHWASHER
• PANTRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: BESARO MHP; Senior community; Pets allowed with number/size limits and upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof; Vinyl skirt
• Exterior features: Carpeted patio/porch; Awnings; Porch; Back yard; Community pool; Community spa; Clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast nook; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on street level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower over tub and tile; Other bath with stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Pantry; Dining area; Family room; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $214,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4141 Deep Creek Rd #137	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	7mo	$219,000	$196	74
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	67
4141 Deep Creed Rd #129	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	12mo	$235,000	$163	62
259 Molokai Cir #259	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	0mo	$180,000	$134	58
328 Waikiki Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	57
418 Fiji Cir #418	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	2mo	$313,333	$233	55
409 Fiji Cir	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+4%)	11mo	$300,000	$227	50
243 Jamaica Cir	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	10mo	$216,000	$161	48
269 Oahu	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	46
324 Waikiki Cir	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	46
56 Palm Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	9mo	$130,000	$116	41
51 Palm Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $52,121
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $159,646
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94555

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $1,352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	17d	1	0.40mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	14d	1	0.46mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	43d	1	0.83mi
5016 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$3,150	$4.38	1d	10	0.83mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	1d	13	0.84mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.87mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	20d	1	1.01mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	24d	1	1.04mi
4910 Lowry Rd Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1129	$3,500	$3.10	43d	1	1.10mi
34573 Falls Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	12d	1	1.18mi
34141 Gannon Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1324	$4,000	$3.02	1d	1	1.18mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	3d	1	1.19mi
4739 Louise Ln Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$4,000	$3.03	43d	1	1.21mi
34132 Spezia Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1481	$3,900	$2.63	18d	1	1.24mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	17d	1	1.30mi
34130 Lugano Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1701	$3,800	$2.23	43d	1	1.31mi
5764 Via Lugano Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1617	$4,100	$2.54	1d	1	1.38mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	2d	1	1.43mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	1d	1	1.46mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	1d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $214,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,448
• − Management: −$3,448
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable income: $13,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,268
• After-tax cash flow: $12,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,501
• Household income: $219,938
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 73% White 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Armenian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 53% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Chinese 19% Other Indo-European 18% Other Asian/Pacific 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1033.77%
• Current HPI: 366.987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $214,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.