12540 Gurnee Ave · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1994 7,701 sqft lot Est $160k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderfully remodeled 1152 sq ft home. New flooring (upgraded vinyl plank flooring) new carpet in bedrooms, fresh paint inside, new toilets, new tub and new tile surround in spare bath, new shower pn and ne tile surround mater bath, new kitchen countertops, new vanities and tops in both baths, all new ceiling light fixtures, new fan, new subfloor, all new updated outlets and switches. This home is move in ready.

Key facts

• Paved quiet road
• Double lot
• Doublewide

Tags

• DOUBLEWIDE
• DOUBLE LOT
• PAVED QUIET ROAD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned AR
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.18-acre lot
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $511 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.24%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,128
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11955 Bemont Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$160,000	$139	67
10537 Fran St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-10%)	8mo	$195,000	$188	64
10040 Jungle St	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	15mo	$179,000	$156	63
10020 Jungle St	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,286 (+12%)	5mo	$175,000	$136	51
9910 Jerome Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-4%)	10mo	$95,000	$86	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,370
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $26,017
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	5d	1	0.72mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	24d	1	1.07mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	24d	1	1.07mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	18d	1	1.10mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.12mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.22mi
9251 Adler St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1006	$1,450	$1.44	24d	1	1.45mi
9253 Beaufort Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 402-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $134,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $140,000
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus $118,500
18. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus $118,500 Closed 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Wonderfully remodeled 1152 sq ft home. New flooring (upgraded vinyl plank flooring) new carpet in bedrooms, fresh paint inside, new toilets, new tub and new tile surround in spare bath, new shower pn and ne tile surround mater bath, new kitchen countertops, new vanities and tops in both baths, all new ceiling light fixtures, new fan, new subfloor, all new updated outlets and switches. This home is move in ready.

19. 2022-06-22
    status Pending 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Wonderfully remodeled 1152 sq ft home. New flooring (upgraded vinyl plank flooring) new carpet in bedrooms, fresh paint inside, new toilets, new tub and new tile surround in spare bath, new shower pn and ne tile surround mater bath, new kitchen countertops, new vanities and tops in both baths, all new ceiling light fixtures, new fan, new subfloor, all new updated outlets and switches. This home is move in ready.

20. 2022-06-18
    listed $119,900 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Wonderfully remodeled 1152 sq ft home. New flooring (upgraded vinyl plank flooring) new carpet in bedrooms, fresh paint inside, new toilets, new tub and new tile surround in spare bath, new shower pn and ne tile surround mater bath, new kitchen countertops, new vanities and tops in both baths, all new ceiling light fixtures, new fan, new subfloor, all new updated outlets and switches. This home is move in ready.

21. 2022-03-08
    soldstatus $57,000
22. 2022-03-03
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Investor special or come make this house your own! This home has the potential for you to start fresh and make it exactly how you want it to be. It is a 2 bed, 2 bath, fixer upper, that is just waiting for your love and attention! It sits on . 18 of an acre and is fully fenced with a gated entry! Schedule your showing today.

23. 2022-02-12
    status Pending 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Investor special or come make this house your own! This home has the potential for you to start fresh and make it exactly how you want it to be. It is a 2 bed, 2 bath, fixer upper, that is just waiting for your love and attention! It sits on . 18 of an acre and is fully fenced with a gated entry! Schedule your showing today.

24. 2022-02-11
    listed $65,000 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Investor special or come make this house your own! This home has the potential for you to start fresh and make it exactly how you want it to be. It is a 2 bed, 2 bath, fixer upper, that is just waiting for your love and attention! It sits on . 18 of an acre and is fully fenced with a gated entry! Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $4,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $5,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+115.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) $118,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-18 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-03 Sold (MLS) $57,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-11 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.