5 Union St · New Baltimore, NY 12173

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 205 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is perfectly situated on prime corner parcel. The welcoming front porch is perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding in the evenings. Step inside to an open floor plan with a bright airy living area that flows into the dining space and kitchen. The kitchen features modern appliances, ample cabinet and counter space, with a convenient kitchen island. Each bedroom is generously sized, and combines cozy comfort with all the amenities you need for modern living!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 204 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $155,000; Active listing (modified Apr 28, 2026)

Exterior

• Utilities: Forced air heating (utility present)
• Home design: Single-family (spec plan named "5 Union")
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $904 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.99%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $142,020
• Equity at exit: $139,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $373,032
• Equity at exit: $301,131

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12173

• Home prices YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Summerset Rd Stuyvesant, NY	2.0	2.0	1560	$2,500	$1.60	14d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 185 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $8,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,138
• After-tax cash flow: $8,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kinderhook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615210
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,409
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2223
• State rank: #294 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Baltimore

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 182
• Population (ZIP): 2,040

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.11%
• Current HPI: 393.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B