403 Lotus St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1980 9,726 sqft lot $107/sqft · 22% below area Est $225k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Recent foundation engineer reports available.

Key facts

• Roof replacement
• 9,726 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ROOF REPLACEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,862
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -22.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Maple St	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (+5%)	4mo	$254,900	$149	79
51 Lotus Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (+7%)	5mo	$288,000	$165	74
137 Silverbell Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (-4%)	2mo	$259,999	$167	73
55 Sweetgum Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	71
155 Silverbell Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,482 (-9%)	1mo	$259,900	$175	68
119 Bois D'arc	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,845 (+13%)	1mo	$219,000	$119	68
122 Bumelia St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-4%)	5mo	$245,000	$156	63
501 Elm St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,722 (+6%)	1mo	$267,000	$155	59
119 Basswood St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-5%)	4mo	$224,000	$144	58
411 Center Way	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,432 (-12%)	2mo	$117,000	$82	49
107 Gardenia St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,811 (+11%)	2mo	$194,000	$107	49
232 Laurel St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,834 (+12%)	4mo	$239,999	$131	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,018
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,463
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $237	+0% $188	+5% $138	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $110	+0% $188	+5% $265	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $232	base $188	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Oleander St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,000	$1.41	45d	1	0.23mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,453	$1.74	45d	17	0.44mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,203	$1.44	0d	10	0.44mi
301 Cypress St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.5	1878	$2,000	$1.06	45d	1	0.88mi
138 Oyster Creek Dr Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,525	$1.30	45d	1	1.28mi
523 Wisteria St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	1.5	1508	$1,775	$1.18	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Active 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Recent foundation engineer reports available.

2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Recent foundation engineer reports available.

3. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Great opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Recent foundation engineer reports available.

4. 2026-03-13
   listed $175,000 Active 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Sold "AS IS" condition for Cash or "Hard Loan" Ask your agent for the Engineer's Report in regards to the foundation.

5. 2026-03-13
   listed $175,000 Active 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Great investment opportunity. Spacious 4BR home in central location with roof replacement in 2004. Needs some updating, but nice home for a family wanting more room. Sold "AS IS" condition for Cash or "Hard Loan" Ask your agent for the Engineer's Report in regards to the foundation.

6. 2022-03-23
   soldstatus
7. 2022-03-23
   soldstatus
8. 2015-12-11
   historical
9. 2015-10-26
   status Pending
10. 2015-10-14
    listed $117,500 Active
11. 2011-01-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$109
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $175,000 BCBR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-10-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-14 Listed $117,500 HARMLS
• 2011-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,425 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.