7743 N Manitonka Dr · Weidman, MI 48893

$64,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,341 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1900 7,841 sqft lot $48/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bed, 1.5 bath fixer-upper on a private wooded lot with major upside. Generous square footage with large living areas, open flow, enclosed porch, and attached garage. Property needs cosmetic updates, cleanout, and general improvements but offers solid bones for a strong value-add opportunity. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Quiet setting with mature trees and room to enhance curb appeal and outdoor space. Priced to reflect condition--bring your vision and capitalize on the potential.

Key facts

• Private wooded lot
• Enclosed porch
• Outdoor space

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#538 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Chippewa Hills School District (rural): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #324 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mecosta Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #433 of 1,397 statewide, top 34%, 228 students, 66% FRL); Chippewa Hills Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 513 students, 69% FRL); Chippewa Hills High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 476 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Isabella County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($442 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Isabella County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $62,080 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.94%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,395
• List price: $64,000
• Delta: -61.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7176 Windoga Lake Dr Lot : 57	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,375 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$127	52
7176 Windoga Lake Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,375 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$127	52
7924 Manitonka Ln	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-14%)	23mo	$155,000	$135	48
7924 Manitonka Ln	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-14%)	23mo	$155,000	$135	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $70,950
• Equity at exit: $57,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $180,585
• Equity at exit: $124,338

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48893

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $544

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $585	+0% $567	+5% $548	+10% $530
Rent	-10% $467	-5% $517	+0% $567	+5% $616	+10% $666
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $583	base $567	+0.5pp $550	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $64,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $64,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $64,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $64,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $64,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $64,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   price $79,000 539-char remark
9. 2026-05-11
   price $79,000 539-char remark
10. 2026-05-11
    price $79,000
11. 2026-05-06
    status Active 539-char remark
12. 2026-05-06
    status Active 539-char remark
13. 2026-05-06
    status Active
14. 2026-05-06
    historical
15. 2026-05-06
    historical 539-char remark
16. 2026-05-06
    historical 539-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $89,000 Active 539-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $89,000 Active 539-char remark
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $814 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$814
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $6,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $5,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chippewa Hills School District
• NCES district ID: 2609560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,598
• Composite: 28.01/100
• National rank: #6849
• State rank: #324 of 540 in MI

Livability — Weidman

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #16494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,660

Population outlook (Isabella County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,111 people
• By 2030: 77,600 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 79,890 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 81,568 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 86,602 · +15.3%
• By 2100: 92,201 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Isabella

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.5% · R 53.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+9.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.65%
• Current HPI: 381.2
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-28.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $64,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $64,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $64,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $79,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $79,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $64,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $64,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $64,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $74,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $74,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $74,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listed $89,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $89,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $814 · +39.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.