405 Velasco St · Brazoria, TX 77422

$113,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2000 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a rental property, this is it. Property is already occupied with a tenant that has always paid his rent time. Home is a 2000 Shamrock Champion home. Great income property.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Tenant occupied
• Large lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TENANT OCCUPIED
• LARGE LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• STRONG RENTAL APPEAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Brazoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,001 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Columbia El (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 60% FRL); West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL); Columbia H S (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 889 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($781 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,300 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $55,122
• Equity at exit: $101,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $167,483
• Equity at exit: $219,534

Cash invested: $31,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$593
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,196/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $95,081

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-69	+0% $-101	+5% $-133	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-138	+0% $-101	+5% $-65	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-73	base $-101	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,250
• Closing costs: $3,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Oakdale Ct Apt 2203 Brazoria, TX	2.0	1.5	721	$950	$1.32	45d	1	0.48mi
102 Oakdale Ct Apt 1103 Brazoria, TX	2.0	1.5	721	$895	$1.24	45d	1	0.48mi
102 Oakdale Ct Unit 2102 Brazoria, TX	2.0	1.5	721	$875	$1.21	45d	1	0.48mi
102 Oakdale Ct Brazoria, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$895	$1.24	14d	1	0.48mi
102 Oakdale Ct Brazoria, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$950	$1.32	45d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $113,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $113,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $113,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $113,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $113,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $113,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $113,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $113,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $113,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $113,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $113,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $113,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $113,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $113,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $113,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $113,000 Active
18. 2025-02-09
    historical
19. 2025-01-20
    listed $100,000 Active
20. 2022-08-08
    soldstatus Sold 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    If you are looking for a rental property, this is it. Property is already occupied with a tenant that has always paid his rent time. Home is a 2000 Shamrock Champion home. Great income property.

21. 2022-07-08
    status Pending 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    If you are looking for a rental property, this is it. Property is already occupied with a tenant that has always paid his rent time. Home is a 2000 Shamrock Champion home. Great income property.

22. 2022-07-04
    status Option Pending 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    If you are looking for a rental property, this is it. Property is already occupied with a tenant that has always paid his rent time. Home is a 2000 Shamrock Champion home. Great income property.

23. 2022-06-08
    listed $110,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    If you are looking for a rental property, this is it. Property is already occupied with a tenant that has always paid his rent time. Home is a 2000 Shamrock Champion home. Great income property.

24. 1994-01-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,330
• − Property taxes: −$2,196
• − Insurance: −$565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$876
• − Management: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$3,287
• Taxable loss: −$3,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$762
• After-tax cash flow: $-455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brazoria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1001
• US rank: #17755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brazoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 1994-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,196 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.