858 Crazy Horse Way · Farmers Loop, AK 99712

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 1.15 ac lot $57/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property offers a rare opportunity to create your dream space in a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood with easy access to both the Steese Highway and Chena Hot Springs Road. Located just 10 minutes from Walmart and Fred Meyer East, this 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home sits on a spacious lot with ample room for parking, entertaining, gardening, etc. . Enjoy the privacy of mature trees and the convenience of dual driveway access from Old Steese Hwy and Crazy Horse Drive. A cozy woodstove helps offset heating costs during the colder months. The home itself needs TLC and is being sold as-is—ideal for those looking to invest in a project. Cash or construction loan only.

Key facts

• Dual driveway access
• Spacious lot
• Cozy woodstove

Tags

• DUAL DRIVEWAY ACCESS
• COZY WOODSTOVE
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.3% in Farmers Loop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#56 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.45%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,087
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -73.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Pay Streak Dr	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,661 (+5%)	9mo	$474,900	$286	57
400 Winter St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-9%)	8mo	$200,000	$139	49
332 Winter St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,418 (-10%)	16mo	$425,000	$300	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $22,201
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $66,897
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,276/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $627	-5% $602	+0% $576	+5% $551	+10% $525
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $513	+0% $576	+5% $640	+10% $704
Rate	-1.0pp $622	-0.5pp $599	base $576	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-02
   listed $90,000 Active 675-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,276
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $5,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Farmers Loop

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #16401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmers Loop, AK
• Population (ZIP): 12,070

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,276 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.