36678 Patsy Ln · Hilliard, FL 32011

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2024 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come view this country home today! Home has a welcoming fireplace you can cozy up to in the colder nights, kitchen has many cabinets, spacious dining room, laundry room is located inside (home is sold with a washer and a dryer), split floor plan, master bath has garden tub, walk in shower and double sinks. There is a large front covered porch and rear screened in porch. 2 car carport is located in the rear of the home, 2 sheds convey with purchase (approx 10 x 20 and 8 x 10). Partially fenced in yard.

Key facts

• 2.5 beautiful acres
• Serene pond
• Animal pen

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• 2.5 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• SERENE POND
• ANIMAL PEN
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 spaces); Gated parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Residential single-family use
• Exterior features: Private lot of 2.5 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.0% in Hilliard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#382 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $250k implies a 2399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,631 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.78%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $107,174
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $338,293
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32011

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,845/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $169,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-312	-5% $-383	+0% $-454	+5% $-525	+10% $-595
Rent	-10% $-574	-5% $-514	+0% $-454	+5% $-394	+10% $-334
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-390	base $-454	+0.5pp $-519	+1.0pp $-584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Active
2. 2026-05-23
   price $249,900
3. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-30
   price $299,000
5. 2026-04-21
   listed $319,900 Active
6. 2019-06-12
   historical 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   Come view this country home today! Home has a welcoming fireplace you can cozy up to in the colder nights, kitchen has many cabinets, spacious dining room, laundry room is located inside (home is sold with a washer and a dryer), split floor plan, master bath has garden tub, walk in shower and double sinks. There is a large front covered porch and rear screened in porch. 2 car carport is located in the rear of the home, 2 sheds convey with purchase (approx 10 x 20 and 8 x 10). Partially fenced in yard.

7. 2019-01-12
   listed $120,000 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   Come view this country home today! Home has a welcoming fireplace you can cozy up to in the colder nights, kitchen has many cabinets, spacious dining room, laundry room is located inside (home is sold with a washer and a dryer), split floor plan, master bath has garden tub, walk in shower and double sinks. There is a large front covered porch and rear screened in porch. 2 car carport is located in the rear of the home, 2 sheds convey with purchase (approx 10 x 20 and 8 x 10). Partially fenced in yard.

8. 2019-01-10
   listed $120,000
9. 1987-09-08
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,845
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$10,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hilliard

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #6750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,259
• Population (ZIP): 15,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.56%
• Current HPI: 351.8301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2399.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $249,900 realMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $299,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $319,900 realMLS
• 2019-06-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2019-01-12 Listed $120,000 realMLS
• 2019-01-10 Listed $120,000 AINCAR
• 1987-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,845 · +70.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.