7452 10th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$200,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Other · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 4,950 sqft lot $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 7452 10th Street! The Axis is a single-story home that blends comfort and functionality. This layout offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and discover 1,192 square feet of elevated modern design. Anchored by an open-concept family room that connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a pantry, and easy access to the adjacent laundry room for added convenience. The private primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom, creating a comfortable retreat. Two additional bedrooms are positioned near a second full bathroom, offering flexibility for family members, guest

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• 4,950 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ADJACENT LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $201k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-411/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,661 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,010
• Equity at exit: $29,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,250
• Equity at exit: $17,378

Cash invested: $56,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,054
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $194,935

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $23	+0% $-34	+5% $-91	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-93	+0% $-34	+5% $24	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $17	base $-34	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,248
• Closing costs: $6,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	0.35mi
7403 5th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,349	$1.03	45d	1	0.55mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	0.56mi
7415 5th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	45d	1	0.64mi
7410 5th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,400	$1.10	45d	1	0.64mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	46d	1	0.79mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	0.89mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.96mi
6801 19th St Unit 179 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.02mi
6509 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1044	$925	$0.89	45d	1	1.09mi
7324 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$850	$0.91	45d	1	1.17mi
2104 La Salle Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,250	$1.69	45d	1	1.20mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	15d	1	1.26mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	1.27mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	45d	1	1.30mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	1.40mi
6223 24th St Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,150	$1.30	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $200,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,678 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,174/yr (+$264/mo · 629.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,259
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$1,005
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,847
• Taxable loss: −$3,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $200,990 LARMLS