614 Chapman Dr · Lancaster, TX 75146

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2008 6,490 sqft lot Est $276k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Lancaster Home with 4 bedrooms 2 bathrooms that has been completely renovated with kitchen cabinets, granite counters in kitchen and both baths, tub to ceiling tile in both bathrooms, new fixtures and toilets, wood water proof laminate flooring in all living areas, new stainless steel appliances, electric range stove, porcelain tile in both baths and new carpet in all bedrooms. Home is in sought after Lancaster School District, close to Walmart, Groceries Stores, Shopping, and Restaurants. Just minutes away from Interstates 35, Make this you beauty yours!!

Key facts

• New toilets
• Kitchen cabinets
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#926 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks/Millbrook El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 420 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,997 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,165
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Rawlins Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,827 (+1%)	2mo	$315,000	$172	90
1941 Indian Lilac Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+0%)	5mo	$139,900	$77	90
1922 Cross Oaks Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (-1%)	2mo	$264,900	$148	78
1308 Meadow Gln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,777 (-2%)	1mo	$252,000	$142	67
644 Mission Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,911 (+6%)	7mo	$269,900	$141	67
1366 Southridge Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,793 (-1%)	7mo	$275,000	$153	61
1521 W Springcrest Cir	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,812 (+0%)	5mo	$279,900	$154	60
1362 Rosewood Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,848 (+2%)	7mo	$285,000	$154	56
345 Allerton Mews	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,947 (+8%)	3mo	$285,000	$146	55
1378 Greenbriar Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-12%)	7mo	$249,500	$157	50
1310 Willowbrook St	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,630 (-10%)	4mo	$179,900	$110	49
1837 Zion Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,874 (+4%)	8mo	$320,500	$171	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $22,250
• Equity at exit: $135,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $97,204
• Equity at exit: $215,485

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$577 /mo · $6,924/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,736

Max offer price $223,997

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
711 Lentisco Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	2425	$2,249	$0.93	43d	1	0.11mi
1934 Mosley Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,099	$1.20	24d	1	0.21mi
1910 Jasmine Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2183	$2,480	$1.14	24d	1	0.35mi
1623 Venus Dr E Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2339	$2,345	$1.00	12d	1	0.50mi
1373 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1289	$1,850	$1.44	2d	1	0.59mi
1424 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,099	$1.15	24d	1	0.60mi
1450 Waldrop Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,291	$1.18	43d	1	0.68mi
1450 Waldrop Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,105	$1.08	20d	1	0.68mi
1555 Willowbrook St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,759	$1.14	22d	1	0.76mi
1534 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.5	2612	$2,700	$1.03	43d	1	0.77mi
1534 Chapman Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	2612	$2,700	$1.03	19d	1	0.77mi
2720 Wild Grove Ln Unit 1340976P Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$15,834	$9.14	22d	1	0.79mi
2720 Wild Grove Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1733	$8,750	$5.05	43d	1	0.79mi
1605 N Houston School Rd Lancaster, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1125	$2,412	$2.14	1d	39	0.81mi
1217 Meadow Creek Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2088	$1,905	$0.91	7d	1	0.82mi
1217 Meadow Creek Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2088	$1,971	$0.94	12d	1	0.82mi
1225 Oakbluff Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,895	$1.42	3d	1	0.86mi
2827 Saint Martin Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,400	$1.69	43d	1	0.93mi
1125 Greenbriar Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,825	$1.05	7d	1	0.95mi
2843 Saint Johns Ave Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	43d	1	0.96mi
2843 Saint Johns Ave Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$2,095	$1.37	5d	1	0.96mi
1109 Harvest Hill Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2006	$2,350	$1.17	7d	1	0.99mi
1750 Oneal St Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,100	$1.44	43d	1	0.99mi
2858 Saint Thomas Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,950	$1.27	24d	1	1.00mi
111 Palm Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,199	$1.14	5d	1	1.01mi
176 Palm Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$2,200	$1.09	22d	1	1.02mi
1308 Devine Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,350	$1.50	43d	1	1.02mi
1563 Nottingham Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,299	$1.21	24d	1	1.03mi
134 Rolling Hills Pl Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.5	2544	$1,500	$0.59	44d	1	1.04mi
1811 Kings Cross Dr Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	1.05mi
1748 Cansler Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,195	$1.22	43d	1	1.05mi
1861 Serena Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,350	$1.36	2d	1	1.05mi
2900 Ocean Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	2520	$2,201	$0.87	18d	1	1.07mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,210	$1.19	2d	1	1.13mi
610 Canvas Ct Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,276	$1.22	7d	1	1.13mi
1532 Linda Ln Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	24d	1	1.16mi
1218 Jewell Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,071	$1.12	7d	1	1.17mi
1215 Jessie Ln Lancaster, TX	4.0	2.5	2279	$2,296	$1.01	12d	1	1.19mi
1533 Prescott Dr Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	4d	1	1.22mi
246 Rolling Hills Pl Unit 1 Lancaster, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,600	$1.04	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $279,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   status $269,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-04-14
    status Pending
11. 2026-04-06
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,924 · $577/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,924 · $577/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$6,924
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,275
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8349
• State rank: #714 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #16461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 44,142
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,097
• Household income: $68,071
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1462.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 316.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $269,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,924 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.