24635 Main Rd · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$660,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 1940 0.60 ac lot $367/sqft · 43% below area Est $1155k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This colonial-style home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an eat-in kitchen, and driveway parking. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 150 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $660k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($149k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $660k).
• Recommended offer: $581k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $66k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $185k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$113k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $660k implies a 517% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $580,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.36%
• DSCR: 4.58
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,155,073
• List price: $660,000
• Delta: -42.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2870 Fairway Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+6%)	7mo	$1,280,000	$674	64
540 Cedars Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,056 (+14%)	16mo	$885,000	$430	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $1,147,744
• Equity at exit: $594,580

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.0%
• Equity multiple: 15.94×
• Total profit: $2,760,225
• Equity at exit: $1,282,235

Cash invested: $184,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,461
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,399
• Net cashflow: $12,376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,282

Max offer price $660,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12,749	-5% $12,562	+0% $12,376	+5% $12,189	+10% $12,002
Rent	-10% $10,721	-5% $11,548	+0% $12,376	+5% $13,203	+10% $14,031
Rate	-1.0pp $12,708	-0.5pp $12,544	base $12,376	+0.5pp $12,205	+1.0pp $12,031

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $165,000
• Closing costs: $19,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	45d	1	0.23mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	45d	1	1.06mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	45d	1	1.07mi
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,900	$2.17	45d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $660,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $660,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $660,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $660,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $660,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $660,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $660,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $660,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $660,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $660,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $660,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $660,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $660,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $660,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $660,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    listed $660,000 Active 187-char remark

    Show marketing remark (187 chars)

    This colonial-style home features three bedrooms, two full baths, an eat-in kitchen, and driveway parking. The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

17. 1986-03-26
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,239 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,197 · $683/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,957/yr (+$246/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $251,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,970
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$3,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,109
• − Management: −$20,109
• − Depreciation: −$19,200
• Taxable income: $146,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,145
• After-tax cash flow: $113,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+516.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $660,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,239 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.