2309 W 16th St · Odessa, TX 79762

$89,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 8,058 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! Spacious REO property offering approximately 1,792 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, multiple living areas, bonus space, and flexible layout potential. Property requires significant repairs and renovation and is being sold strictly as-is, where-is. Cash or conventional financing only. No seller repairs, survey, or Seller's Disclosure Notice. Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a substantial project with upside potential.

Key facts

• 8,058 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame and other construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.185-acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Paved road access; Solar energy system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater listed among appliances
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Zoned heating; Central air conditioning; Gas and electric cooling components
• Interior features: Tile, laminate, and other flooring; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included; Water heater (gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cameron Dual Language Magnet (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 613 students, 66% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 21% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 1,036 students, 66% FRL); Odessa H S (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,874 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.15%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $48,974
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $115,177
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,103	-5% $1,077	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,027	+10% $1,001
Rent	-10% $881	-5% $966	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,223
Rate	-1.0pp $1,097	-0.5pp $1,075	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,029	+1.0pp $1,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Santa Rita Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2072	$1,875	$0.90	22d	1	0.37mi
2 Star Cir Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.43mi
200 Santa Rita Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,400	$1.67	44d	1	0.58mi
1800 W 23rd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,650	$1.41	44d	1	0.71mi
1506 N Alleghaney Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,650	$1.10	22d	1	1.02mi
537 Avenue B Unit B Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1918	$2,300	$1.20	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-05-29
   listed $89,900 Active
6. 1991-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $11,932
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,864
• After-tax cash flow: $9,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $89,900 ODMLS
• 1991-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · -52.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.