2002 Mockingbird Bnd Unit B-5 · Graford, TX 76449

$328,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Condo · 141 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $224/sqft · 46% below area Est $610k · 46% under · waterfront $413/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a lake retreat that highlights the relaxed, easygoing lifestyle people love about Possum Kingdom Lake. Located in Gaines Bend, this condo offers convenient access to nearby marinas, restaurants, and lake amenities while still providing a quieter setting to unwind and enjoy the water. Positioned within a lakefront community, the property allows for low-maintenance ownership with more time spent enjoying the lake and less time managing exterior upkeep. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a simple place to escape, this property offers flexibility to fit a variety of uses. The interior features a functional layout with an open living and kitchen area, creating a comfortable space to gather after a day on the water. Large windows allow for natural light and glimpses of the lake, while the existing finishes provide an opportunity for a buyer to update and customize to their personal style over time. Outdoor living is a key highlight, with easy access to the water and shared community spaces designed for lake enjoyment. Spend your days boating, swimming, or relaxing by the shoreline, then unwind in the evenings with peaceful lake views and sunsets over Palo Pinto lake country. Gaines Bend is known for its central lake location and accessibility, making it a desirable area for both full-time residents and weekend visitors. This property presents a chance to get into the Possum Kingdom Lake market at an approachable price point while adding value through future updates.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Lakefront community
• Peaceful lake views

Tags

• LAKEFRONT COMMUNITY
• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN AREA
• LARGE WINDOWS
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• PEACEFUL LAKE VIEWS
• CENTRAL LAKE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $328k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 0.8% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Palo Pinto ISD (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 1,141 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palo Pinto El (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 97 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,491 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $610,285
• List price: $328,000
• Delta: -46.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-101,941
• Equity at exit: $48,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-150,788
• Equity at exit: $28,359

Cash invested: $91,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$413
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,392

Max offer price $216,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-544	-5% $-657	+0% $-771	+5% $-884	+10% $-997
Rent	-10% $-962	-5% $-866	+0% $-771	+5% $-675	+10% $-580
Rate	-1.0pp $-605	-0.5pp $-687	base $-771	+0.5pp $-856	+1.0pp $-942

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,000
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $413/mo · $4,956/yr condo

• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $328,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $328,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $328,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $328,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $328,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $328,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $328,500 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $328,500 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $328,500 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    pricedays on market $328,500 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $329,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $329,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $329,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $329,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $329,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,000 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $329,000 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $329,000 Active 117 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $329,000 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $329,000 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $329,000 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $329,000 Active 113 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $329,000 Active 112 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $329,000 Active 111 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $329,000 Active 110 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $329,000 Active 109 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $329,000 Active 108 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $329,000 Active 107 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 106 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 105 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 104 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 103 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $329,000 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $329,000 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $329,000 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $329,000 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $329,000 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $329,000 Active 94 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $329,000 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $329,000 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    price $329,000 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $340,000 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $340,000 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $340,000 Active 87 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $340,000 Active 85 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $340,000 Active 84 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $340,000 Active 81 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $340,000 Active 80 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $340,000 Active 79 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $340,000 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − HOA: −$4,956
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable loss: −$15,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,320–$21,960 screening

This lakefront condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrading the exterior paint and kitchen appliances would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the property more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances can improve the functionality and aesthetic of the space, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in the living area — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the living area, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Palo Pinto El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palo Pinto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834140
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $46,807
• Composite: 56.3/100
• National rank: #2499
• State rank: #86 of 1141 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palo Pinto · 27,500 people
• Population (ZIP): 2,157
• Household income: $70,819
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $340,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $370,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $395,000 NTREIS