40603 Goldeneye Pl · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$335,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,758 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2022 5,998 sqft lot $121/sqft · 15% below area Est $349k · at est. $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home located in the Audubon community. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living areas, making everyday living & entertaining effortless. The spacious kitchen opens to the main living space & offers ample cabinetry, generous counter space, & a layout ideal for gathering with family & friends. The primary suite provides a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms are thoughtfully sized to accommodate family members, guests, or a home office. A versatile game room adds flexibility for media room, or homework hub. Step outside to a great backyard designed for relaxation

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Audubon HOA with annual fee of $1,850; Community amenities include pool, park, picnic area and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Oven; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15.10 x 14); Additional bedrooms on the second floor (approx. 10.5 x 12.11; 10.5 x 12.5; 11.1 x 12.2)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanities; Granite and quartz counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-627 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (33.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,323 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,573
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -3.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40439 Gerygone Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,502 (-9%)	9mo	$339,900	$136	69
40722 Barley Straw Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,681 (-3%)	1mo	$349,990	$131	64
15312 Barnacle Goose Ct	0.20mi	4/3.5	3,019 (+10%)	8mo	$384,900	$127	64
40743 Barley Straw Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,681 (-3%)	2mo	$348,990	$130	63
15531 Vauxs Swift Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,840 (+3%)	1mo	$495,000	$174	57
15235 Tree Swallow Ct	0.54mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,688 (-2%)	5mo	$519,900	$193	57
14706 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,911 (+6%)	9mo	$529,900	$182	54
15243 Tree Swallow Court Ct	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,030 (+10%)	7mo	$690,010	$228	48
15670 Audubon Park Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,994 (+9%)	3mo	$689,900	$230	47
14894 Whistling Duck Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-10%)	8mo	$499,900	$201	46
14818 Whistling Duck Ln	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-10%)	6mo	$499,900	$201	43
14870 Whistling Duck Ln	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,442 (-12%)	9mo	$453,900	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $136,082
• Equity at exit: $301,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $420,425
• Equity at exit: $650,831

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,118/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,346

Max offer price $224,323

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-437	-5% $-532	+0% $-627	+5% $-721	+10% $-816
Rent	-10% $-828	-5% $-727	+0% $-627	+5% $-526	+10% $-425
Rate	-1.0pp $-458	-0.5pp $-541	base $-627	+0.5pp $-713	+1.0pp $-802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.62mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.95mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	1.13mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $335,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $355,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $355,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $355,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $355,000 Active 1012-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    historical
17. 2026-04-03
    price $365,000
18. 2026-02-24
    price $370,000
19. 2026-01-10
    listed $380,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,118 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,118 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$7,118
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,451
• − Management: −$2,451
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$13,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $380,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+90.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,118 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.