38942 State Route 3 · Carthage, NY 13619

$68,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 295 Days on market

Built 2000 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Home is sold as is. 3 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath, Living Room, Kitchen, Laundry off Kitchen. Fenced Backyard on 2 acres. Must make appointment for showings.

Key facts

• 2 acres
• Fenced backyard
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• 2 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 5.5% in Carthage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($476 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $60,544 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.36%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $70,616
• Equity at exit: $61,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.45×
• Total profit: $182,042
• Equity at exit: $133,663

Cash invested: $19,264 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,730/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $68,800

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,200
• Closing costs: $2,064
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $68,800 Pending 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $68,800 Active Under Contract 295 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $68,800 Active Under Contract 294 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $68,800 Active Under Contract 293 DOM
5. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-04-14
   price $68,800
7. 2026-02-25
   price $86,000
8. 2025-11-30
   price $95,000
9. 2025-08-08
   listed $177,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,854
• − Property taxes: −$1,730
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$2,001
• Taxable income: $5,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $4,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-61.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $68,800 CNYIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $86,000 CNYIS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $95,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $177,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,730 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.