3 Rock Mountain Ests · Kerhonkson, NY 12404

$479,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1992 1.60 ac lot $225/sqft · 20% below area Est $711k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move into this well maintained four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offering the perfect blend of comfort and entertainment. Featuring a spacious and open concept floor plan, the kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living areas of the home making the layout ideal for daily life and hosting. The kitchen offers ample counter and cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and a nicely sized pantry. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main floor off of the cozy living room and provides easy accessibility and privacy. On the opposite side of the house, find the additional two bedrooms and full bath to accompany. Have more room to expand your living space into the finished basement. Featuring the fourth bedroom and additional den complete with a wet bar and propane fireplace. Throughout the home, you'll appreciate the abundance of storage solutions that keep everything organized and accessible. Step outside to discover your personal oasis featuring new decks, a patio complete with fire pit for year-round gatherings, and a productive vegetable garden for fresh ingredients. Lush landscaping fills the gardens surrounding the home with color during the summer months. The generous lot size provides plenty of room for outdoor activities and future expansion possibilities. Location advantages include proximity to local attractions like Arrowood Farms, Ravenwood, and the upscale INNESS establishment. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate easy access to Minnewaska State Park Preserve for hiking and nature exploration, while Rough Cut Brewing Company offers local craft beverages. The vibrant town of New Paltz and historic Kingston are both within 20 minutes.

Key facts

• Nicely sized pantry
• Propane fireplace
• Wet bar

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• NICELY SIZED PANTRY
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WET BAR
• PROPANE FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANCE OF STORAGE SOLUTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $422k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $479k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $421,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $710,898
• List price: $479,000
• Delta: -32.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,855 (-13%)	18mo	$575,000	$310	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-58,493
• Equity at exit: $71,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-26,207
• Equity at exit: $41,415

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12404

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$946
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,124

Max offer price $479,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $479,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $479,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $479,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $479,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 186 DOM
16. 2025-11-25
    listed $499,000 Active 1680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1682 chars)

    Move into this well maintained four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offering the perfect blend of comfort and entertainment. Featuring a spacious and open concept floor plan, the kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living areas of the home making the layout ideal for daily life and hosting. The kitchen offers ample counter and cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and a nicely sized pantry. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main floor off of the cozy living room and provides easy accessibility and privacy. On the opposite side of the house, find the additional two bedrooms and full bath to accompany. Have more room to expand your living space into the finished basement. Featuring the fourth bedroom and additional den complete with a wet bar and propane fireplace. Throughout the home, you'll appreciate the abundance of storage solutions that keep everything organized and accessible. Step outside to discover your personal oasis featuring new decks, a patio complete with fire pit for year-round gatherings, and a productive vegetable garden for fresh ingredients. Lush landscaping fills the gardens surrounding the home with color during the summer months. The generous lot size provides plenty of room for outdoor activities and future expansion possibilities. Location advantages include proximity to local attractions like Arrowood Farms, Ravenwood, and the upscale INNESS establishment. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate easy access to Minnewaska State Park Preserve for hiking and nature exploration, while Rough Cut Brewing Company offers local craft beverages. The vibrant town of New Paltz and historic Kingston are both within 20 minutes.

17. 2025-11-25
    listed $499,000 Active 1682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1682 chars)

    Move into this well maintained four-bedroom, two-bathroom home offering the perfect blend of comfort and entertainment. Featuring a spacious and open concept floor plan, the kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living areas of the home making the layout ideal for daily life and hosting. The kitchen offers ample counter and cabinet space, stainless steel appliances and a nicely sized pantry. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main floor off of the cozy living room and provides easy accessibility and privacy. On the opposite side of the house, find the additional two bedrooms and full bath to accompany. Have more room to expand your living space into the finished basement. Featuring the fourth bedroom and additional den complete with a wet bar and propane fireplace. Throughout the home, you'll appreciate the abundance of storage solutions that keep everything organized and accessible. Step outside to discover your personal oasis featuring new decks, a patio complete with fire pit for year-round gatherings, and a productive vegetable garden for fresh ingredients. Lush landscaping fills the gardens surrounding the home with color during the summer months. The generous lot size provides plenty of room for outdoor activities and future expansion possibilities. Location advantages include proximity to local attractions like Arrowood Farms, Ravenwood, and the upscale INNESS establishment. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate easy access to Minnewaska State Park Preserve for hiking and nature exploration, while Rough Cut Brewing Company offers local craft beverages. The vibrant town of New Paltz and historic Kingston are both within 20 minutes.

18. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus $214,000
19. 2013-03-26
    soldstatus $214,000
20. 2012-05-11
    listed $224,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,562 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,328 · $611/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$6,562
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,324
• − Management: −$4,324
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$4,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $4,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 4,046

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.90%
• Current HPI: 345.6723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+122.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Listed $499,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-26 Sold (MLS) $214,000 HVCRMLS
• 2012-05-11 Listed $224,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,562 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.