Is 3619 Atlas Point Ln in Angleton, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.2% cap rate and $-331/mo modeled cash flow at a $251,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3619 Atlas Point Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,343/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 35.04

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +8.4/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$251,990

3619 Atlas Point Ln · Angleton, TX 77515

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,015 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Watermill Collection brings new single-family homes to the Windrose Green masterplan, coming soon to charming Angleton, TX. With a convenient location near the 288 and 35 highways, residents will enjoy convenient commutes and travel to nearby entertainment and employment hubs. Medical services are just minutes away at UTMB Health Angleton. Plus, nearby retailers like Kroger, Walmart, HEB and Buc-ee's make it easy to get everyday essentials.

Key facts

Central game room
Attached bathroom
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (1.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (7.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $234k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
Market conditions: 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,342 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.22%
Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
DSCR: 0.83
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $296,206
List price: $251,990
Delta: -9.19%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3603 Atlas Point Ct	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,015 (0%)	2mo	$305,990	$152	97
3618 Atlas Point Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-4%)	0mo	$249,990	$130	89
1951 Starlight St	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+3%)	0mo	$263,990	$127	85
1906 Stargazer Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-5%)	1mo	$230,340	$120	80
2138 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-5%)	2mo	$258,540	$136	75
3622 Atlas Point Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	2mo	$289,991	$163	75
3511 Atlas Point Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-7%)	1mo	$252,890	$135	74
1935 Stargazer Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+11%)	2mo	$252,990	$113	73
2127 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	0mo	$239,990	$135	73
1947 Starlight St	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+11%)	1mo	$270,990	$122	72
1935 Starlight St	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+11%)	0mo	$273,990	$123	72
1914 Stargazer Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+11%)	1mo	$260,990	$117	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -24.4%
Equity multiple: 0.17×
Total profit: $-68,972
Equity at exit: $44,165

10-year hold

IRR: -19.7%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-86,737
Equity at exit: $25,610

Cash invested: $82,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 141 active · 40 under contract
Months of supply: 14.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $285,900 ($146/sqft)
Median days on market: 89 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77515

Home prices YoY: -5.1%
Active inventory: 1104
Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,343 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,553
Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,443/yr
Insurance: −$123
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$69
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,763

Max offer price $248,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-126	-5% $-229	+0% $-331	+5% $-434	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-424	+0% $-331	+5% $-239	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-256	base $-331	+0.5pp $-408	+1.0pp $-486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,051
Closing costs: $8,886
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,175	$1.16	23d	1	0.04mi
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,175	$1.16	14d	1	0.04mi
3602 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	4.0	3.0	1959	$2,500	$1.28	25d	1	0.04mi
2126 Mosaic Valley Ct Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,300	$1.16	35d	1	0.13mi
4 Stadium Dr Angleton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,810	$1.70	0d	19	1.10mi
513 Robin St Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,495	$1.31	71d	1	1.30mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community managed by Preferred Management ServicesHOA fee of $825 annually

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen and family room comboKitchen and dining comboPrimary bedroom with bathSeparate showerTub with shower
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

HOA detail $69/mo · $828/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

pricedays on market $251,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-07

price $254,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $259,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $259,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $259,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $259,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $259,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $259,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $259,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $259,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $259,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $259,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $259,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $259,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $259,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $259,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $259,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $259,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $259,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $259,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $259,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $259,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $259,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $259,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $259,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $259,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $259,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $259,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $259,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $259,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $259,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $259,990 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $259,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $259,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $259,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $259,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $259,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $259,990 Active 30 DOM

Show marketing remark (448 chars)

The Watermill Collection brings new single-family homes to the Windrose Green masterplan, coming soon to charming Angleton, TX. With a convenient location near the 288 and 35 highways, residents will enjoy convenient commutes and travel to nearby entertainment and employment hubs. Medical services are just minutes away at UTMB Health Angleton. Plus, nearby retailers like Kroger, Walmart, HEB and Buc-ee's make it easy to get everyday essentials.
2026-06-18

price $259,990 Active 29 DOM

Show marketing remark (448 chars)

The Watermill Collection brings new single-family homes to the Windrose Green masterplan, coming soon to charming Angleton, TX. With a convenient location near the 288 and 35 highways, residents will enjoy convenient commutes and travel to nearby entertainment and employment hubs. Medical services are just minutes away at UTMB Health Angleton. Plus, nearby retailers like Kroger, Walmart, HEB and Buc-ee's make it easy to get everyday essentials.
2026-06-17

days on market $266,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $266,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-15

remarks 652-char remark
2026-06-15

days on market $266,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-13

pricedays on market $266,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $264,690 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $264,690 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,121
− Mortgage interest: −$16,592
− Property taxes: −$4,443
− Insurance: −$2,279
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
− Management: −$2,250
− HOA: −$828
− Depreciation: −$8,617
Taxable loss: −$9,137

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,193
After-tax cash flow: $-1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and adds a finished look ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rancho Isabella El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Angleton J H School F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Angleton H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Angleton ISD
NCES district ID: 4808310
Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
Median HH income: $55,670
Composite: 35.01/100
National rank: #5046
State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Angleton

Score: 74/100
State rank: #171
US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 34,088
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 34,088
Household income: $88,787
Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
Current HPI: 288.7286
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

2026-06-18 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
2026-06-18 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
2026-06-12 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
2026-06-12 Price Changed $266,990 Zillow
2026-05-19 Listed $264,690 HARMLS
2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-08 Price Changed $264,690 Zillow
2026-05-07 Price Changed $264,690 HARMLS
2026-05-04 Price Changed $268,990 HARMLS
2026-05-03 Price Changed $268,990 Zillow
2026-04-28 Listed $265,990 HARMLS
2026-04-27 Listed $265,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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