254 Marnico Ln · Jacksonville, IL 62650

$27,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 627 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1995 7,840 sqft lot $44/sqft · at area comps Est $28k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features updated flooring and plenty of potential throughout. With two separate one-car garages, you’ll have ample space for parking, storage, or even a workshop. Situated on owned land, with low monthly sewer costs of just $25. A little TLC will go a long way in making this property truly shine—bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Owned land
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• TWO SEPARATE ONE CAR GARAGES
• OWNED LAND
• LOW MONTHLY SEWER COSTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($933 rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 5.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#187 in IL, #3,543 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $825 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $27,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.97%
• DSCR: 4.74
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $27,500
• List price: $27,500
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
254 Marnico Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	627 (0%)	0mo	$27,500	$44	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $29,879
• Equity at exit: $4,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $70,282
• Equity at exit: $2,378

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62650

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $933 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $512/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $251

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features updated flooring and plenty of potential throughout. With two separate one-car garages, you’ll have ample space for parking, storage, or even a workshop. Situated on owned land, with low monthly sewer costs of just $25. A little TLC will go a long way in making this property truly shine—bring your vision and make it your own!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $27,500 Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features updated flooring and plenty of potential throughout. With two separate one-car garages, you’ll have ample space for parking, storage, or even a workshop. Situated on owned land, with low monthly sewer costs of just $25. A little TLC will go a long way in making this property truly shine—bring your vision and make it your own!

3. 2015-07-30
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 11.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$512
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$896
• − Management: −$896
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $6,415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $4,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #3543

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,318
• Population (ZIP): 24,318

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.33%
• Current HPI: 126.5712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $27,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $512 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.