2765 Nagel Rd · Avon, OH 44011

$229,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 7,840 sqft lot Est $289k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath residence located in a desirable Avon neighborhood near Holy Trinity and within the highly rated Avon school district. The flexible floor plan offers two bedrooms and laundry on the main level and a spacious third bedroom upstairs. Recent updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof in 2023 and hot water tank in 2021. Enjoy the cozy living spaces, functional kitchen with access to a deck perfect for outdoor entertaining, and a one-car attached garage. A storage shed adds extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or seasonal items. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and dining, this well-maintained home offers comfort, valu

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Access to a deck
• Flexible floor plan

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• NEW ROOF
• HOT WATER TANK
• ACCESS TO A DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#356 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Avon Local (suburban): math 77% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #37 of 656 in OH (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Avon Heritage Elementary School (math 84% / reading 83%, grade A+, #96 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 972 students, 13% FRL); Avon Middle School (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A+, #54 of 654 statewide, top 9%, 1,084 students, 11% FRL); Avon High School (math 65% / reading 86%, grade A-, #65 of 781 statewide, top 8%, 1,456 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $229,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,792
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2631 Joseph St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,124 (-2%)	18mo	$300,000	$267	63
2735 Elizabeth	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-5%)	9mo	$240,000	$221	59
2719 Elizabeth St	0.43mi	4/1.0	1,072 (-6%)	14mo	$270,000	$252	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,634
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,763
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44011

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,257/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $481	+0% $416	+5% $351	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $321	+0% $416	+5% $511	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $474	base $416	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33434 Jennie Rd Unit 33440 Avon, OH	3.0	1.0	962	$1,700	$1.77	45d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,257 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,915 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$658/yr (+$55/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,257
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $1,357
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$326
• After-tax cash flow: $4,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Local
• NCES district ID: 3904811
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,034
• Composite: 71.3/100
• National rank: #230
• State rank: #37 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #5751

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,317
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,317
• Household income: $135,915
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.55%
• Current HPI: 191.9412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $229,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,257 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.