5027 Barbara Ln · Milton, FL 32570

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1972 0.33 ac lot Est $280k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Large backyard
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• CUSTOM TILE SHOWER
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Driveway; On-street parking; Total 1 covered parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Insulated walls and ridge vent for energy efficiency
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Paved, county-maintained road access; Central access lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Office/Study; Sun room; Living/dining combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-63/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Berryhill Elementary School (math 71% / reading 62%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 923 students, 51% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,315 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5027 Barbara Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,845 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$141	99
5129 Goshawk Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+1%)	2mo	$280,000	$151	84
6151 Ashton Woods Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-10%)	6mo	$253,500	$153	72
5997 Ashton Woods Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (-5%)	10mo	$295,000	$168	60
6090 Ashton Woods Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-14%)	6mo	$332,625	$209	58
6214 Cottage Woods Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,648 (-11%)	11mo	$250,000	$152	51
5900 Hamilton Bridge Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (-5%)	8mo	$250,000	$142	49
6171 Young Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-14%)	6mo	$240,000	$152	48
5972 Ashton Woods Cir	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,092 (+13%)	8mo	$319,900	$153	48
4898 Jaimee Leigh Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+12%)	4mo	$270,000	$131	47
5234 Hawks Nest Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-15%)	5mo	$267,500	$170	46
6187 Bandol Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,034 (+10%)	8mo	$279,500	$137	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,150
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,793
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,245/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,100

Max offer price $259,068

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $68	+0% $-5	+5% $-79	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-88	+0% $-5	+5% $77	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $61	base $-5	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5963 Ashton Woods Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2282	$1,995	$0.87	15d	1	0.28mi
6218 Cottage Woods Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,200	$1.08	25d	1	0.42mi
4851 Jaimee Leigh Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	25d	1	0.60mi
5105 Westport Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,900	$1.14	25d	1	0.71mi
4718 Lemoyne Vista Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	25d	1	0.79mi
5555 Hannah St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$1,900	$0.95	25d	1	1.25mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	1.38mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	25d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-06
   price $260,000
4. 2026-03-16
   price $264,000
5. 2025-12-23
   listed $265,000 Active
6. 2023-09-22
   soldstatus $247,000
7. 2023-09-19
   soldstatus $247,000 Sold 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

8. 2023-08-17
   historical Contingent 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

9. 2023-08-14
   price $235,000 357-char remark

   Show marketing remark (357 chars)

   Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

10. 2023-07-12
    price $245,000 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

11. 2023-07-10
    status Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

12. 2023-05-26
    historical Contingent 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

13. 2023-05-25
    listed $235,000 Active 357-char remark

    Show marketing remark (357 chars)

    Well maintained 3/2 home with a huge Florida room overlooking an open patio perfect for entertaining or just sit out and sip you morning coffee and enjoy the birds. Plenty of room to add a pool. Oversized living room with a freestanding corner fireplace. Nice custom tile shower in the master bath. Roof was replaced in 2022. House was rewired 06/2023.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,245
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $1,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 69,025
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $260,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $264,000 PARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $265,000 PARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $247,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-19 Sold (MLS) $247,000 PARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $235,000 PARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $245,000 PARMLS
• 2023-07-10 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-05-25 Listed $235,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,245 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.