3843 Exeter Ln · Lakeland, FL 33810

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 1,224 sqft lot $184/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity in Lakeland! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhouse offers incredible potential and is priced below market value to reflect the interior updates and repairs needed. Located in a desirable Lakeland community with a very low HOA, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add value through renovations. Spacious layout, great location, and strong upside potential. Don’t miss this chance to purchase below market and make it your own. Cash or renovation financing preferred.

Key facts

• $184 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; No lease restrictions; Directions: Take exit 32 on I-4, turn left on Sleepy Hill Road, left on Mall Hill Road, left on Dover
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees $184; total annual association fees $2,208
• HOA & community: HOA managed by PMI Arrico Realty and Property Management; Monthly HOA fee $184 (includes maintenance of structure and pool); Community pool; Community sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) — garage approx. 14 x 22
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Facing east; Completed condition
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by MARONDA
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,473
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,117
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,990/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$184
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $187	+0% $130	+5% $73	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $49	+0% $130	+5% $211	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $181	base $130	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	0.03mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	15d	1	0.04mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	0.07mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	4d	1	0.08mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	24d	1	0.10mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	15d	1	0.32mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,700	$1.57	15d	2	0.34mi
3697 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1746	$2,150	$1.23	24d	1	0.35mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,992	$2.00	4d	24	0.37mi
3852 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,950	$1.05	11d	1	0.40mi
1845 Holton Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,983	$1.09	22d	1	0.40mi
1754 Altavista Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,450	$1.18	15d	1	0.51mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,833	$1.73	24d	1	0.53mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,699	$1.59	22d	8	0.55mi
1846 Masters Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$1,800	$1.21	22d	1	0.66mi
3987 Sunset Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$4,500	$2.02	15d	1	0.86mi
1906 Griffin Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1148	$2,339	$2.04	4d	11	0.97mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	4d	1	1.01mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	20d	1	1.17mi
3122 Julia Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1097	$1,450	$1.32	4d	1	1.27mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	24d	1	1.32mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $184 · $2,208/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 518-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $199,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,990
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+178.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $253,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Listed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-13 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-26 Sold (MLS) $167,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-31 Price Changed $167,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-06 Listed $166,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2011-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $71,857 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,990 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.