123 NE 981 Rd · Knob Noster, MO 65336

$164,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1977 8,991 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $166k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

Key facts

• 8,991 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Knob Noster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#104 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Knob Noster R-VIII (town): math 46% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #47 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $132,044 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,517
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -0.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $27,724
• Equity at exit: $79,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $88,477
• Equity at exit: $127,541

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65336

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
709 Elliott Ln Knob Noster, MO	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,245	$0.98	44d	1	0.63mi
705 Elliott Ln Knob Noster, MO	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,325	$1.11	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $164,000 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

3. 2026-04-02
   price $169,900 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

4. 2026-03-20
   price $175,000 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

5. 2026-03-12
   listed $185,000 Active 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

6. 2026-03-09
   historical $185,000 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in the heart of Knob Noster and tucked in a quiet subdivision. This home features a finished basement that provides additional living space, perfect for a family room, recreation area, or home office. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. With great bones and a fantastic location, this home is ready for its new owners to bring a little TLC and make it their own.

7. 2022-08-31
   soldstatus $125,000
8. 1983-06-01
   soldstatus
9. 1978-02-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$681/yr (+$57/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$2,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $1,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knob Noster R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2916830
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,077
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3420
• State rank: #47 of 324 in MO

Livability — Knob Noster

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #6892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 34,718 people
• City population: 6,519
• Metro: Warrensburg, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,519
• Household income: $66,935
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 66.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,794 people
• By 2030: 56,861 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 58,239 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 59,168 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 62,222 · +11.5%
• By 2100: 60,118 · +7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Current HPI: 195.5154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warrensburg, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+31.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $164,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $169,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Coming Soon $185,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $910 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.