55 Pacifica Ave #86 · Bay Point, CA 94565

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Other · 35 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute mobile home has 2 Living Rooms but one of the Living Rooms has doors that can be converted easily to a 3rd Bedroom. Its Spacious with lots of Light. Nice floor Plan and perfect for the first time buyer. Its in Move in Condition with one Yr. Warranty.

Key facts

• Central a/c and heat
• Spacious kitchen
• Bonus room

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LOTS OF STORAGE SPACE
• CENTRAL A/C AND HEAT
• NEWER WASHER AND DRYER
• MINUTES AWAY FROM FREEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs allowed, approval required); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Guest parking; Located in Club Marina

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Covered carport/awning; Two or more carports
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Siding (other)
• Exterior features: Front porch with porch steps; Awning(s); Side yard; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing range (range/oven); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Den; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.7% in Bay Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#736 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $169k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $9,547
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $44,548
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Pacifica Ave Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,775	$2.05	24d	1	0.17mi
1123 Shoreview Ct Bay Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,417	$2.93	3d	9	0.44mi
139 Ambrose Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	20d	1	0.78mi
138 Tammy Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	842	$2,300	$2.73	3d	1	0.79mi
2000 Villa Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,890	$3.13	1d	13	0.83mi
2901 Mary Ann Ln Bay Point, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$2,038	$2.74	5d	8	1.16mi
515 Lancaster Ln #138 Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	24d	1	1.17mi
1023 Chadwick Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,350	$2.50	4d	1	1.20mi
135 Poinsettia Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	1.0	1169	$2,700	$2.31	1d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $169,000 Active
16. 2018-04-06
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    This cute mobile home has 2 Living Rooms but one of the Living Rooms has doors that can be converted easily to a 3rd Bedroom. Its Spacious with lots of Light. Nice floor Plan and perfect for the first time buyer. Its in Move in Condition with one Yr. Warranty.

17. 2018-03-17
    status Pending 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    This cute mobile home has 2 Living Rooms but one of the Living Rooms has doors that can be converted easily to a 3rd Bedroom. Its Spacious with lots of Light. Nice floor Plan and perfect for the first time buyer. Its in Move in Condition with one Yr. Warranty.

18. 2018-02-20
    listed $99,900 New 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    This cute mobile home has 2 Living Rooms but one of the Living Rooms has doors that can be converted easily to a 3rd Bedroom. Its Spacious with lots of Light. Nice floor Plan and perfect for the first time buyer. Its in Move in Condition with one Yr. Warranty.

19. 2018-01-18
    historical
20. 2018-01-10
    listed New
21. 1998-11-20
    soldstatus $4,250
22. 1998-11-17
    historical
23. 1998-02-23
    listed $4,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $5,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $6,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bay Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #21661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Point, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+3655.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $169,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-04-06 Sold (MLS) $100,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-03-17 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-02-20 Listed $99,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-01-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-01-10 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-11-20 Sold (MLS) $4,250 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-11-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-02-23 Listed $4,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.