3703 Stoneybrook St · Baytown, TX 77521

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1981 9,317 sqft lot $129/sqft · 23% below area Est $234k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 1,388 sq ft home nestled in a well-established neighborhood with no HOA. This quaint residence features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living. The attached two-car garage provides convenience and ample storage. Situated on a generous 9,317 sq ft lot, the property boasts a nicely sized backyard complete with a fence and a covered patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy added privacy with a green space behind the home and no back neighbors. Inside, a cozy wood-burning fireplace creates a warm and inviting atmosphere. Centrally located in the heart of Baytown with easy access to

Key facts

• 9,317 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (10 x 8); Breakfast nook on the first floor (12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett El (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 628 students, 75% FRL); Cedar Bayou J H (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 969 students, 81% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,013 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,676
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -23.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3703 Stoneybrook St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	0mo	$179,000	$129	100
4002 Montego Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-1%)	2mo	$160,000	$117	85
604 Briarclift Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+3%)	3mo	$210,000	$147	81
4001 Stoneybrook St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	5mo	$199,000	$136	78
4005 Stoneybrook St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+6%)	10mo	$245,000	$167	73
609 Heather Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+8%)	14mo	$249,900	$166	69
804 Edgebrook Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+6%)	17mo	$209,900	$143	65
702 Pinebrook Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+12%)	16mo	$219,000	$141	62
807 Sunnybrook Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$136	59
602 Heather Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+14%)	14mo	$225,000	$142	58
827 Hartman Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+9%)	10mo	$220,000	$145	46
507 Pamela Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,293 (-7%)	19mo	$190,000	$147	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-41,027
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-57,360
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,984/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,808

Max offer price $152,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-102	+0% $-153	+5% $-203	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-217	+0% $-153	+5% $-89	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-107	base $-153	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
619 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,884	$2.06	0d	33	0.26mi
10960 Bradford Way Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	933	$1,290	$1.38	45d	1	0.32mi
3409 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$950	$1.03	45d	1	0.66mi
305 Kelly Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,000	$0.61	17d	1	0.68mi
1706 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	45d	1	0.76mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	1d	1	0.86mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	26d	1	0.86mi
99 W Cedar Bayou Lynchburg Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,254	$2.19	0d	16	0.86mi
4925 N Main St Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,550	$1.31	45d	1	1.00mi
3723 Emmett Hutto Blvd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	45d	1	1.10mi
2257 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,525	$1.51	45d	1	1.14mi
2200 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,664	$1.93	3d	13	1.28mi
516 William Ave Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	45d	1	1.29mi
4313 Lariat Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,713	$1.11	7d	1	1.38mi
1305 Memorial Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	845	$1,193	$1.41	26d	3	1.39mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,775	$1.80	1d	27	1.40mi
2898 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,216	$1.36	45d	1	1.43mi
907 South Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,780	$1.65	45d	1	1.44mi
1525 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,250	$1.12	26d	1	1.45mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	1.47mi
1512 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,200	$1.08	45d	1	1.48mi
1510 Beaumont Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	1.49mi
1607 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,025	$1.01	45d	1	1.49mi
1601 Garth Rd Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1190	$1,499	$1.26	4d	5	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 862-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $179,000 Active 862-char remark
3. 2025-07-03
   soldstatus
4. 1988-06-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,984 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,984 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$4,984
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$4,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,984 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.