10411 Chaparral Rd · Killeen, TX 76542

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · Townhouse public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1995 0.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Selling as a package of 3 duplexes only, cannot sell individually. no showings until after an accepted offer due to tenant coordination. MLS 605639, 605636, 605633. It is too difficult co corrdinate 6 tenants for showings at 1 time. These 3 duplexes sit next to each other and share the same road. All units are occupied with leases expiring in 2026. Total price is 690k for all 3 duplexes.

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 115 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($511/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Haynes El (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 57% FRL); Charles E Patterson Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 56% FRL); C E Ellison H S (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,682 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $189k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-33,290
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-46,245
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,382/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $96	+0% $43	+5% $-11	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-31	+0% $43	+5% $116	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $91	base $43	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9911 Diana Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,795	$1.08	15d	1	0.85mi
244 Ariana Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,850	$0.96	15d	1	0.99mi
401 Dixon Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$1,745	$0.81	15d	1	1.02mi
400 Paddock Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	1.07mi
300 Curtis Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2132	$1,945	$0.91	15d	1	1.09mi
3307 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1987	$1,995	$1.00	23d	1	1.13mi
302 Saddleback Trl Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.15mi
9407 Zayden Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2154	$1,900	$0.88	45d	1	1.20mi
3303 Castleton Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,595	$1.19	23d	1	1.29mi
9405 Glynhill Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	15d	1	1.31mi
3423 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1804	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.33mi
3311 Rusack Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	2130	$1,750	$0.82	45d	1	1.33mi
209 Brandy Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,445	$1.09	25d	1	1.34mi
209 Brandy Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,445	$1.09	23d	1	1.34mi
3520 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,795	$1.34	45d	1	1.44mi
104 Christopher Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,862	$1.00	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $189,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $199,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Selling as a package of 3 duplexes only, cannot sell individually. no showings until after an accepted offer due to tenant coordination. MLS 605639, 605636, 605633. It is too difficult co corrdinate 6 tenants for showings at 1 time. These 3 duplexes sit next to each other and share the same road. All units are occupied with leases expiring in 2026. Total price is 690k for all 3 duplexes.

19. 2026-03-13
    price $210,000 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Selling as a package of 3 duplexes only, cannot sell individually. no showings until after an accepted offer due to tenant coordination. MLS 605639, 605636, 605633. It is too difficult co corrdinate 6 tenants for showings at 1 time. These 3 duplexes sit next to each other and share the same road. All units are occupied with leases expiring in 2026. Total price is 690k for all 3 duplexes.

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $230,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Selling as a package of 3 duplexes only, cannot sell individually. no showings until after an accepted offer due to tenant coordination. MLS 605639, 605636, 605633. It is too difficult co corrdinate 6 tenants for showings at 1 time. These 3 duplexes sit next to each other and share the same road. All units are occupied with leases expiring in 2026. Total price is 690k for all 3 duplexes.

21. 2024-12-27
    historical $750
22. 2024-10-29
    listed $750
23. 2024-10-24
    historical $750
24. 2024-10-11
    listed $750
25. 2024-10-10
    historical
26. 2024-07-30
    price $260,000
27. 2024-06-26
    listed $275,000 Active
28. 2024-04-10
    historical $850
29. 2024-04-02
    price $850
30. 2024-03-26
    price $895
31. 2024-01-12
    listed $925
32. 2013-04-29
    soldstatus $72,675
33. 2012-12-21
    listed $72,675
34. 2012-12-21
    listed $72,675
35. 2008-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,382 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,382 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,382
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$614
• After-tax cash flow: $1,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1167.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+173.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $199,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $210,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $230,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-12-27 Rental Removed $750 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listed for Rent $750 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-24 Rental Removed $750 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listed for Rent $750 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $260,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $275,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-12 Listed for Rent $925 APPFOLIO
• 2013-04-29 Sold (MLS) $72,675 CTXMLS
• 2012-12-21 Listed $72,675 CTXMLS
• 2012-12-21 Listed $72,675 CTXMLS
• 2008-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,382 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.