3511 Melody Gardens Pl · Plant City, FL 33565

$394,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 7,885 sqft lot $9/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Farm at Varrea offers new homes in Plant City, less than 10 minutes from I-4. Easy access to the interstate provides a seamless commute to the large surrounding cities such as Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland. Farm at Varrea, nestled among grand oak trees, provides a small-town, rural feel, yet allows homeowners to be immersed in all that Plant City can provide. Just 11 minutes away, you'll find Downtown Plant City with a main street bustling with unique shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Not only is the community in a prime location, but it sits in the center of the Strawberry Capital, where the famous Strawberry Festival is held annually, bringing rides, vendors, and live entertainment to the city. Each home features thoughtfully designed, open-concept floor plans to suit every lifestyle and built with durable concrete block construction on the first and second stories and includes Smart Home System for seamless modern living. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability.

Key facts

• Smart home system
• 7,885 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE
• SMALL-TOWN RURAL FEEL
• CENTER OF STRAWBERRY CAPITAL
• SMART HOME SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($182/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,268/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 152% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $326,850 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-63,090
• Equity at exit: $58,894

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-53,900
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,864/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $394,990

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,748
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	24d	1	0.40mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	24d	1	0.44mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	24d	1	0.49mi
2505 Victorious Falls Ave Plant City, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$3,100	$1.19	24d	1	1.43mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,400	$1.32	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   price $394,990 1431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   The property is located at 3511 MELODY GARDENS PL PLANT CITY FL 33565 priced at 394990, the square foot and stories are 2605, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

2. 2026-04-29
   listed $394,990 Active 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   The property is located at 3511 MELODY GARDENS PL PLANT CITY FL 33565 priced at 394990, the square foot and stories are 2605, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $396,990 Active 1431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1431 chars)

   Under Construction. The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Farm at Varrea offers new homes in Plant City, less than 10 minutes from I-4. Easy access to the interstate provides a seamless commute to the large surrounding cities such as Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland. Farm at Varrea, nestled among grand oak trees, provides a small-town, rural feel, yet allows homeowners to be immersed in all that Plant City can provide. Just 11 minutes away, you'll find Downtown Plant City with a main street bustling with unique shops, restaurants, and entertainment. Not only is the community in a prime location, but it sits in the center of the Strawberry Capital, where the famous Strawberry Festival is held annually, bringing rides, vendors, and live entertainment to the city. Each home features thoughtfully designed, open-concept floor plans to suit every lifestyle and built with durable concrete block construction on the first and second stories and includes Smart Home System for seamless modern living. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from homes as built. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability, and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Materials may vary based on availability.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,864 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,864 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,864
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$6,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $1,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $394,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $394,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Listed $396,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid