318 N Jefferson St · Paris, IL 61944

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 1930 8,000 sqft lot $32/sqft · 45% below area Est $72k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handy man Special. Get your tools and make this house your home. Decent exterior, just needs some inside TLC. 2 Bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard. Hardwood floors.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $40k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.81%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,976
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -44.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 W Carroll St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-1%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	65
305 W Crawford St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,287 (+3%)	2mo	$143,000	$111	62
704 N Main St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,288 (+3%)	12mo	$82,000	$64	57
914 W Elizabeth St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+4%)	4mo	$77,000	$59	52
719 Connelly St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,346 (+8%)	1mo	$115,000	$85	50
701 N Central Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-10%)	12mo	$17,000	$15	49
7 Woodhall Pl	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,164 (-7%)	8mo	$136,000	$117	46
903 W Crawford St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (-12%)	3mo	$90,000	$82	46
702 N Main St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (+13%)	8mo	$94,500	$67	40
701 Alexander St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,064 (-15%)	6mo	$54,000	$51	39
507 Alexander St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,420 (+14%)	8mo	$85,000	$60	39
801 N Central Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	11mo	$92,000	$84	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $27,250
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $67,219
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,043 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $373

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $540	+0% $529	+5% $518	+10% $506
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $488	+0% $529	+5% $570	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $539	base $529	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $39,900 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    Handy man Special. Get your tools and make this house your home. Decent exterior, just needs some inside TLC. 2 Bedrooms, 1 bath, nice yard. Hardwood floors.

18. 1993-06-24
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 4.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,001
• − Management: −$1,001
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,088
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $4,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+73.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $39,900 CIBR
• 1993-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $827 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.