1301 Minglewood Rd · Liberty, TX 77575

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1960 1.06 ac lot $89/sqft · 37% below area Est $235k · 37% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for this property located in Liberty. This property features 3 bedroom and 2 full bathrooms. This property is on 1 acer lot nestled a beautiful wooded area with lots of potential. This property also has a large Quonset hut for a shop or extra garage usage. This is one that will be great for first time home buyer or investors. Schedule a showing today. Don't miss out on this one. It will move fast!

Key facts

• Large quonset hut
• 1 acre lot
• Wooded area

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• WOODED AREA
• LARGE QUONSET HUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1960; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; First-floor kitchen (7 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on first floor (10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Den; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Middle (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 557 students, 68% FRL); Liberty H S (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 707 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,000
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -36.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Mimosa Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,880 (+12%)	20mo	$70,000	$37	50
3604 N Main St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+3%)	10mo	$199,000	$115	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,982
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,114
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$382 /mo · $4,588/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 Lincoln St Liberty, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,850	$1.07	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $159,000 Active 418-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,588 · $382/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,588 · $382/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$4,588
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #9688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, TX
• City population: 16,617
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $179,453 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,588 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.