10626 Happyville Rd · Panama City, FL 32466

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2019 1.17 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living, with nearly 1.5 acres offering plenty of space and privacy. This 2019 mobile home offers a desirable split-bedroom floor plan. Primary bedroom is spacious and includes a walk-in closet, large shower and double vanities in master bathroom. Living room showcases built in shelving, with an open kitchen and dining area. The deep lot features a fenced in back yard making it ideal for pets or simply relaxing around a bonfire. Adding to the home's value are fully paid-off solar panels, recently serviced and in excellent working condition, micro inverters under warranty until 2045. New hot water heater installed 1/28/2026. Motivated seller, bring all offers!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Built in shelving
• Fenced in back yard

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS
• MICRO INVERTERS UNDER WARRANTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.17 acres (dimensions ~500 x 100) — residential single-family zoning
• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Road access: maintained dirt road
• Home design: Single wide mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Chain link fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.04%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $119,986
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.13×
• Total profit: $318,827
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32466

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $727	+0% $687	+5% $648	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $533	-5% $610	+0% $687	+5% $764	+10% $841
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $723	base $687	+0.5pp $651	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $140,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-05
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $6,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $6,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 91,445
• Population (ZIP): 5,837

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.68%
• Current HPI: 274.7988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-27 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $159,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.