3468 Knightsbridge Trl N · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$577,795

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · Other public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $246/sqft · 25% below area Est $765k · 25% under $96/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reiely model not for sale. New build homes that can be customized to fit your preferences. New cul-de-sac lots now for sale. We offer both homeowner maintained exterior and a "snow and mow" section where the HOA handles snow removal and lawn maintenance.

Key facts

• Hoa lawn maintenance
• Cul-de-sac lots
• New build homes

Tags

• NEW BUILD HOMES
• CUL-DE-SAC LOTS
• HOMEOWNER MAINTAINED EXTERIOR
• HOA HANDLES SNOW REMOVAL
• HOA LAWN MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $578k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-929 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.7% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($526k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $486k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $400,000 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $765,463
• List price: $577,795
• Delta: -24.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-152,677
• Equity at exit: $86,151

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-208,654
• Equity at exit: $49,957

Cash invested: $161,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,030
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$722 /mo · $8,667/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,176

Max offer price $443,366

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,449
• Closing costs: $17,334
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10974 37th St N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	3.0	2299	$4,000	$1.74	43d	1	0.04mi
3472 Knightsbridge Trl N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	2.5	2022	$4,000	$1.98	43d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: snow removal

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $577,795 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $577,795 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $577,795 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $577,795 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $577,795 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $577,795 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $577,795 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $577,795 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $577,795 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $577,795 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $577,795 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $577,795 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $577,795 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $577,795 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Reiely model not for sale. New build homes that can be customized to fit your preferences. New cul-de-sac lots now for sale. We offer both homeowner maintained exterior and a "snow and mow" section where the HOA handles snow removal and lawn maintenance.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $577,795 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Reiely model not for sale. New build homes that can be customized to fit your preferences. New cul-de-sac lots now for sale. We offer both homeowner maintained exterior and a "snow and mow" section where the HOA handles snow removal and lawn maintenance.

18. 2025-08-15
    price $536,940
19. 2025-07-23
    price $538,940
20. 2025-05-22
    price $536,940
21. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus $485,939
22. 2025-02-07
    listed $522,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,366
• − Property taxes: −$8,667
• − Insurance: −$2,889
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$16,809
• Taxable loss: −$21,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $577,795 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $536,940 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $538,940 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $536,940 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $485,939 Public Records
• 2025-02-07 Listed $522,390 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid