1646 Darin Dr · Grants Pass, OR 97527

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1991 $83/sqft · 30% above area Est $100k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1991
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $941 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $130k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.01%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 30.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1514 Agape Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$148,900	$89	76
1418 SW Redfin Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	6mo	$340,000	$202	70
1505 Agape Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	4mo	$60,000	$44	68
298 Whispering Willow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	3mo	$88,000	$58	66
1426 Willow Ct	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	14mo	$110,000	$73	64
2387 Mulberry Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	7mo	$83,000	$55	64
2371 Ryan Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-4%)	12mo	$133,000	$88	63
310 Whispering Willow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	2mo	$92,000	$55	60
2398 Sasha Ct	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+13%)	0mo	$130,000	$73	60
137 Blue Spruce Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+8%)	11mo	$91,500	$54	54
122 Whispering Willow Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (-13%)	4mo	$99,900	$73	49
110 Red Oak Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	1mo	$105,000	$59	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $38,937
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $111,419
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97527

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,014	-5% $978	+0% $941	+5% $904	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $766	-5% $853	+0% $941	+5% $1,028	+10% $1,115
Rate	-1.0pp $1,006	-0.5pp $974	base $941	+0.5pp $907	+1.0pp $873

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 Kokanee Ln Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	44d	1	0.24mi
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	44d	1	0.60mi
109 SW Otter Ct Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	45d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $130,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-04-30
   price $130,000 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

6. 2026-03-16
   price $135,000 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

7. 2026-02-19
   status Active 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

8. 2025-12-22
   status Pending 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

9. 2025-12-22
   historical 553-char remark

   Show marketing remark (553 chars)

   SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

10. 2025-12-17
    price $149,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

11. 2025-12-01
    listed $165,000 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    SELLER OFFERING CREDIT FOR FIRST 6 MONTHS RENT. The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is NOT a 55+, NOT A PARK . Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $650 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The land owner pays for the water which is a community well.

12. 2020-09-11
    soldstatus $79,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is not a 55+ park. Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $515 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The park pays for the water which is a community well.

13. 2020-07-14
    listed $79,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    The home is located on a large lot within a manufactured home subdivision. This is not a 55+ park. Well-kept double-wide home with a bright and airy kitchen, large living room and master bedroom. The carport has a shed/shop at the back and are attached to the home. Has GPID irrigation available and is paid for by the owners of the land/subdivision. Large fenced backyard. Monthly park space is only $515 plus sewer (amount $48/month). The park pays for the water which is a community well.

14. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus $40,000
15. 2014-03-06
    listed $43,000
16. 2011-02-18
    soldstatus $42,000
17. 2011-02-18
    soldstatus $42,000
18. 2009-07-21
    listed $46,000
19. 2009-07-21
    listed $46,000
20. 2007-08-07
    historical
21. 2007-03-22
    listed $94,500
22. 2004-06-17
    soldstatus $52,000
23. 2004-06-17
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2004-04-01
    listed $52,000
25. 2004-04-01
    listed $52,000
26. 1991-09-01
    soldstatus $42,426

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $9,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,336
• After-tax cash flow: $8,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Grants Pass

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #7900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants Pass, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• City population: 73,366
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,330
• Household income: $66,975
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.09%
• Current HPI: 318.0477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.05%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+206.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $130,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $135,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2025-12-22 Pending — MLSCO
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $149,000 MLSCO
• 2025-12-01 Listed $165,000 MLSCO
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $79,000 MLSCO
• 2020-07-14 Listed $79,000 MLSCO
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSCO
• 2014-03-06 Listed $43,000 MLSCO
• 2011-02-18 Sold (MLS) $42,000 RMLS
• 2011-02-18 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MLSCO
• 2009-07-21 Listed $46,000 RMLS
• 2009-07-21 Listed $46,000 MLSCO
• 2007-08-07 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2007-03-22 Listed $94,500 MLSCO
• 2004-06-17 Sold (MLS) $52,000 RMLS
• 2004-06-17 Sold (MLS) $52,000 MLSCO
• 2004-04-01 Listed $52,000 RMLS
• 2004-04-01 Listed $52,000 MLSCO
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,426 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $852 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.