11019 Longtom Ct · Houston, TX 77086

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2001 7,453 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $202k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac
• Ceramic floor
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• CERAMIC FLOOR
• CUL-DE-SAC
• MORE PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,882 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,548
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: 4.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10715 Misty River Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (+2%)	1mo	$178,000	$122	58
10723 Mackenzie Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+12%)	4mo	$248,000	$154	55
7302 Seton Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+5%)	5mo	$219,900	$146	55
5010 Kale Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,609 (+12%)	7mo	$199,900	$124	54
7015 Winding Trace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (+12%)	1mo	$235,000	$146	52
10910 Alseth Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+11%)	11mo	$179,950	$113	49
7023 Sandswept Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-14%)	2mo	$174,900	$142	45
11503 Stansberg Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,635 (+14%)	8mo	$239,999	$147	42
10707 Misty River Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,282 (-11%)	5mo	$210,000	$164	40
6810 Sandswept Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-12%)	5mo	$170,000	$134	38
6727 Winding Trace Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,285 (-10%)	12mo	$229,900	$179	35
6911 Silver Star Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (+14%)	4mo	$175,000	$107	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.6% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,683
• Equity at exit: $78,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,521
• Equity at exit: $109,394

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77086

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,826/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $192,348

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5113 Caldera Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,841	$1.00	7d	1	0.31mi
11430 Hackmatack Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	43d	1	0.44mi
11008 Panicum Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,488	$1.20	43d	1	0.78mi
7750 Water Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1209	$1,900	$1.57	43d	1	1.19mi
9526 Golden Wood Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	1.29mi
12752 N Houston Rosslyn Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,963	$2.13	1d	13	1.32mi
5163 Klein Orchard Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,149	$1.39	43d	1	1.41mi
3435 Creek Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1492	$1,725	$1.16	43d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $210,000 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

3. 2026-04-20
   price $215,000 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

4. 2026-04-01
   status Active 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

5. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

6. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

7. 2026-03-21
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

8. 2026-03-21
   status Active 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

9. 2026-03-09
   status Pending 179-char remark

   Show marketing remark (179 chars)

   4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

10. 2026-03-09
    listed $220,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    4/2/2 year built 2001. One story. New roof, new paint, ceiling fans in 4 bedrooms, all ceramic floor, cul-de-sac, more parking space. Near 249 & Beltway 8. NW Houston.

11. 2014-04-17
    price $107,000
12. 2014-04-17
    historical
13. 2014-03-19
    status Pending, Continue to Show
14. 2014-03-04
    status Option Pending
15. 2014-02-27
    price $100,000 Active
16. 2014-02-27
    status Active
17. 2014-02-20
    status Pending
18. 2014-02-15
    listed $99,900 Active
19. 2012-04-09
    soldstatus
20. 2012-04-05
    soldstatus
21. 2012-02-21
    historical
22. 2012-02-08
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,826 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,826 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,826
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,711
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $-68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,653
• Household income: $58,200
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 26% Black 19% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 54% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Current HPI: 281.0065
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.19%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Price Changed $107,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-03-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-02-27 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2014-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-02-15 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2012-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-02-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-02-08 Listed $55,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,826 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.