3295 Dave Smith Rd · Mebane, NC 27302

$160,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1200 sq ft mobile home on 1.33 acres, corner lot 3 BR, 2 bath Front porch Back porch Roof carport Storage building with lean to shed New floor in master bedroom and master bathroom, shower in MB is one year old; new roof on front porch All appliances: stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer and dryer

Key facts

• Lean to shed
• Front porch
• Storage building

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH
• CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• LEAN TO SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.0% in Mebane — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#71 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 443 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $161k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,121 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-648
• Equity at exit: $23,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $25,627
• Equity at exit: $13,916

Cash invested: $45,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27302

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 443
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $792/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $160,950

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,238
• Closing costs: $4,828
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,950 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,950 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,950 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,950 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,950 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,950 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,950 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,950 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,950 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,950 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,950 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,950 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,950 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,950 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,950 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,950 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $152,950 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    1200 sq ft mobile home on 1.33 acres, corner lot 3 BR, 2 bath Front porch Back porch Roof carport Storage building with lean to shed New floor in master bedroom and master bathroom, shower in MB is one year old; new roof on front porch All appliances: stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer and dryer

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $160,950 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    1200 sq ft mobile home on 1.33 acres, corner lot 3 BR, 2 bath Front porch Back porch Roof carport Storage building with lean to shed New floor in master bedroom and master bathroom, shower in MB is one year old; new roof on front porch All appliances: stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, washer and dryer

19. 2026-05-01
    listed $160,950 Active
20. 2008-02-14
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 66.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,016
• − Property taxes: −$792
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,719
• − Management: −$1,719
• − Depreciation: −$4,682
• Taxable income: $2,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$661
• After-tax cash flow: $4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caswell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,172
• Composite: 25.44/100
• National rank: #7452
• State rank: #146 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mebane

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #5365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 35,418
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 35,418
• Household income: $79,819
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1122.0

Population outlook (Caswell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,389 people
• By 2030: 20,297 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 17,848 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 15,578 · -27.2%
• By 2075: 11,939 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 8,930 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caswell

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.4% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: 3.1pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+18.5 2016: R+11.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.06%
• Current HPI: 208.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+188.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $152,950 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,950 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-01 Listed $160,950 Fizber.com
• 2008-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $792 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.