5316 Comanche St · Zephyrhills West, FL 33542

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1969 5,529 sqft lot Est $115k · 26% under $37/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Corner-Lot Home in Betmar 55+ Community – You OWN the Land! Come see this lovely home situated on a desirable corner lot in Betmar Acres, a vibrant 55+ community where you own your land! Enjoy the low annual community fee of just $435 and take advantage of the many amenities in Betmar. This partially furnished single-wide home feels spacious thanks to thoughtful additions — a large living room and primary bedroom with a full bath have been added to the side, giving it the feel of a double-wide. The kitchen, located at the back of the home, features ample counter space and a convenient breakfast bar. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring and brand-new carpet thro

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Large living room
• Full bath

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.81%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,816
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37020 Lois Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	624 (+13%)	2mo	$73,000	$117	53
5251 Flint St	0.57mi	2/1.0	600 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$208	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,413
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $25,340
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,440/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $913

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	0.38mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	1.18mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.36mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	1.41mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	1.48mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $85,000
3. 2026-03-12
   price $89,500
4. 2026-03-04
   price $99,500
5. 2026-02-02
   price $106,000
6. 2026-01-13
   price $112,500
7. 2025-10-14
   listed $114,500 Active
8. 2025-04-21
   status Pending
9. 2025-04-01
   price $105,000
10. 2025-02-05
    price $115,000
11. 2025-01-29
    price $124,000
12. 2024-11-21
    price $129,000
13. 2024-11-19
    price $131,000
14. 2024-08-09
    price $133,000
15. 2024-05-29
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,440
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$943
• After-tax cash flow: $4,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-37.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $89,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $106,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $124,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $131,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-29 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,440 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.