854 Ash Ave · Westbrook, MN 56183

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The house has been completely remodeled and updated including new electric and plumbing. Furnace, hot water heater, and bath, all new. Built-in stovetop and oven. Easy to clean ceramic countertop. Central air conditioning and heat. New roofing installed.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Ceramic countertop
• Completely remodeled

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• NEW ELECTRIC
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ROOFING
• BUILT-IN STOVETOP
• CERAMIC COUNTERTOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-193/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#229 in MN, #4,836 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Westbrook-Walnut Grove Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #213 of 301 in MN (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29 units permitted in Cottonwood County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Cottonwood County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $125k implies a 1388% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,000 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $30,002
• Equity at exit: $73,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $90,500
• Equity at exit: $128,441

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56183

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $122,156

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $19	+0% $-16	+5% $-51	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-54	+0% $-16	+5% $21	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $16	base $-16	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
624 Columbus Ave Westbrook, MN	2.0	1.0	612	$950	$1.55	45d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $125,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    The house has been completely remodeled and updated including new electric and plumbing. Furnace, hot water heater, and bath, all new. Built-in stovetop and oven. Easy to clean ceramic countertop. Central air conditioning and heat. New roofing installed.

18. 2026-04-01
    historical
19. 2025-08-08
    price $109,000
20. 2025-06-03
    price $117,900
21. 2025-05-06
    price $120,000
22. 2025-03-12
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2024-12-01
    historical
24. 2019-02-02
    historical
25. 2019-02-02
    historical
26. 2014-01-21
    listed $14,000
27. 2012-04-10
    listed $19,900
28. 2012-04-10
    listed $19,900
29. 2002-05-31
    listed $129,000 Active
30. 2001-09-24
    soldstatus $8,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$575
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbrook-Walnut Grove Schools
• NCES district ID: 2700183
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,672
• Composite: 35.55/100
• National rank: #4906
• State rank: #213 of 301 in MN

Livability — Westbrook

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westbrook, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,300

Population outlook (Cottonwood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,130 people
• By 2030: 10,916 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 10,467 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 10,136 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 10,080 · -9.4%
• By 2100: 10,091 · -9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cottonwood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.1) · D 28.6% · R 69.7% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.5pp toward R · 2008: -6.6pp · 2024: -41.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.1 2020: R+38.2 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+6.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.32%
• Current HPI: 215.6101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1388.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 Fizber.com
• 2026-05-13 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $109,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $117,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-21 Listed $14,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-10 Listed $19,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-10 Listed $19,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-31 Listed $129,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $8,400 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.