117 John St #44 · Valley Falls, RI 02865

$162,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 746 sqft · Condo public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1973 $218/sqft · 11% below area Est $183k · 11% under $298/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat and clean 1BR unit with recent updates including all new electric baseboard heat, microwave, dishwasher, toilet and new tile at unit entrance! Water, sewer, maintenance, landscaping and snow removal included in fee. Laundry in bldg. Condo fee includes special assessment of $67/mo for recent improvements by the Association which include a new roof in 2023, new emergency lighting/fire safety installed in 2024, and upcoming forcasting for new pavement of lots. Come and call this condo located in Lincoln, RI your home soon! The Association requires only owner occupied buyers at this time.

Key facts

• New pavement of lots
• New roof
• Fire safety

Tags

• NEW ELECTRIC BASEBOARD HEAT
• NEW TILE AT UNIT ENTRANCE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW EMERGENCY LIGHTING
• FIRE SAFETY
• NEW PAVEMENT OF LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Valley Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in RI, #4,293 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln (suburban): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 39 in RI (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lonsdale Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #56 of 167 statewide, top 39%, 296 students, 27% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 40% / reading 47%, grade D, #7 of 57 statewide, top 11%, 778 students, 29% FRL); Lincoln Senior High School (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #9 of 58 statewide, top 14%, 976 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,385 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,986
• List price: $162,900
• Delta: -10.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-32,556
• Equity at exit: $24,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-35,849
• Equity at exit: $14,085

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02865

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,441/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$298
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $145,385

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-53	+0% $-99	+5% $-145	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-161	+0% $-99	+5% $-37	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-58	base $-99	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1624 Lonsdale Ave Lincoln, RI	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	45d	1	0.11mi
25 Cabot St Lincoln, RI	1.0	1.0	691	$1,750	$2.53	45d	1	0.56mi
63 W Carpenter St Unit 2R Attleboro, MA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	45d	1	1.22mi
34 Fletcher St Unit 4 Central Falls, RI	2.0	1.0	550	$1,600	$2.91	18d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $298 · $3,576/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectriclandscapingsnow removal
• ⚠ Special-assessment mentions:

  …entrance! Water, sewer, maintenance, landscaping and snow removal included in fee. Laundry in bldg. Condo fee includes special assessment of $67/mo for recent improvements by the Association which include a new roof in 2023, new emergency lighting/fire…

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $162,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $162,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $162,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $162,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $167,900 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Neat and clean 1BR unit with recent updates including all new electric baseboard heat, microwave, dishwasher, toilet and new tile at unit entrance! Water, sewer, maintenance, landscaping and snow removal included in fee. Laundry in bldg. Condo fee includes special assessment of $67/mo for recent improvements by the Association which include a new roof in 2023, new emergency lighting/fire safety installed in 2024, and upcoming forcasting for new pavement of lots. Come and call this condo located in Lincoln, RI your home soon! The Association requires only owner occupied buyers at this time.

17. 2024-04-16
    historical
18. 2024-03-19
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2024-03-07
    listed $125,000 Active
20. 2019-05-24
    soldstatus $118,000
21. 2006-08-28
    soldstatus $138,900
22. 2006-08-28
    soldstatus $139,000
23. 2006-08-01
    historical
24. 2006-05-15
    listed $134,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,048 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$607/yr (+$51/mo · 42.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$1,441
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − HOA: −$3,576
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$3,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$926
• After-tax cash flow: $-263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln
• NCES district ID: 4400570
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $69,500
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4115
• State rank: #13 of 39 in RI

Livability — Valley Falls

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,033

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Russian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.01%
• Current HPI: 325.7543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $167,900 RIS
• 2024-04-16 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2024-03-19 Contingent — RIS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $125,000 RIS
• 2019-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-28 Sold (MLS) $138,900 RIS
• 2006-08-01 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2006-05-15 Listed $134,900 RIS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,441 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.