355 Hartford Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1960 9,148 sqft lot Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a home you want to come and see. This is a 3 Bedroom, 1 1/2 Bathroom, on a corner lot, with privacy fence on the South, West, and North sides of the back yard. The back yard has a nice covered patio the full length of the house, and a carport that will cover 1 car. The back yard also has a nice large shed. As you enter the house, you see the nice Lamant wood flooring in the living room, and goes thru the halls to the bedrooms. There is beautiful tile in the kitchen, and both bathrooms. To the right, you notice an archway, into the carpeted family room. The Kitchen is large, with the dining area attached. Lota of room to entertain, or have family time. A real plus, is the city park, right beside the house, where your kids can play. This one wont last. Give us a call to check it out.

Key facts

• Privacy fencing
• Decorative archway
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• DECORATIVE ARCHWAY
• FULL-LENGTH COVERED PATIO
• PRIVACY FENCING
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pinal County - CR3

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2 carport spaces (additional carport present)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Phone service connected
• Home design: Single-family home; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Gazebo; Additional carport; Wood fencing; Paved road access; North/South exposure; Park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop
• Flooring: Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 W Jamestown Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-5%)	6mo	$226,000	$152	78
302 W Greenwich Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	1mo	$185,000	$127	71
307 W Essex Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+8%)	6mo	$235,000	$139	66
426 W Essex Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-12%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	66
345 W Essex Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,757 (+12%)	13mo	$135,000	$77	62
412 W Fairhaven Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,711 (+9%)	14mo	$210,000	$123	61
346 W Greenwich Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,744 (+11%)	18mo	$192,000	$110	59
327 W Essex Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+12%)	9mo	$184,000	$104	57
301 W Fairhaven Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+4%)	20mo	$159,900	$98	55
504 W Hartford Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-13%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	52
429 W Fairhaven Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,429 (-9%)	17mo	$146,000	$102	51
602 S York Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+5%)	18mo	$172,000	$104	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $107,618
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $307,068
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $244	+0% $194	+5% $145	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $131	+0% $194	+5% $257	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $239	base $194	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $2,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1240.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-21 Sold (MLS) $143,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-03-04 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 1987-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $13,053 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $950 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.