44 NE Vicki Ct · Gumbranch, GA 31316

$271,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2008 1.31 ac lot Est $239k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled Home In Ludowici Ga , This home is gorgeous what i find huge front and back porch new everything fresh paint and flooring beautiful glass back backspalsh that matches the counters perfect brand new stainless steel appliances huge privacy fenced in yard in cul-de-sac- open concept huge living room too included vaulted ceiling beautiful island in the kitchen that overlooks living room for entertaining . Seller is a license realtor in the state of ga .

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Grand entryway
• Split floor plan

Tags

• FULL INTERIOR PAINT REFRESH
• GRAND ENTRYWAY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COZY WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 1.31-acre lot
• Exterior features: City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Storage; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.5% in Gumbranch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $271k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,505 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,954
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Ashley Ln NE	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (+8%)	17mo	$225,000	$138	57
48 Ashley Ln NE	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,708 (+12%)	23mo	$269,000	$157	51
163 Cumberland Dr NE	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (-4%)	13mo	$254,000	$173	45
73 Yearling Court Ct NE	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+6%)	24mo	$260,000	$162	45
471 Wilkinson Road Rd NE	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+11%)	21mo	$237,500	$141	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $18,819
• Equity at exit: $94,757

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $84,491
• Equity at exit: $127,676

Cash invested: $75,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $654/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $271,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $262	+0% $185	+5% $108	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $96	+0% $185	+5% $274	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $254	base $185	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,750
• Closing costs: $8,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $271,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $271,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $271,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $271,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $271,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $271,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $271,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $271,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $271,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    listed $275,000 Active
13. 2018-12-06
    soldstatus $175,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Remodeled Home In Ludowici Ga , This home is gorgeous what i find huge front and back porch new everything fresh paint and flooring beautiful glass back backspalsh that matches the counters perfect brand new stainless steel appliances huge privacy fenced in yard in cul-de-sac- open concept huge living room too included vaulted ceiling beautiful island in the kitchen that overlooks living room for entertaining . Seller is a license realtor in the state of ga .

14. 2018-11-23
    soldstatus $174,900 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Remodeled Home In Ludowici Ga , This home is gorgeous what i find huge front and back porch new everything fresh paint and flooring beautiful glass back backspalsh that matches the counters perfect brand new stainless steel appliances huge privacy fenced in yard in cul-de-sac- open concept huge living room too included vaulted ceiling beautiful island in the kitchen that overlooks living room for entertaining . Seller is a license realtor in the state of ga .

15. 2018-11-20
    soldstatus $175,000
16. 2018-09-27
    listed $189,985 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Remodeled Home In Ludowici Ga , This home is gorgeous what i find huge front and back porch new everything fresh paint and flooring beautiful glass back backspalsh that matches the counters perfect brand new stainless steel appliances huge privacy fenced in yard in cul-de-sac- open concept huge living room too included vaulted ceiling beautiful island in the kitchen that overlooks living room for entertaining . Seller is a license realtor in the state of ga .

17. 2018-09-27
    listed $185,000 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Remodeled Home In Ludowici Ga , This home is gorgeous what i find huge front and back porch new everything fresh paint and flooring beautiful glass back backspalsh that matches the counters perfect brand new stainless steel appliances huge privacy fenced in yard in cul-de-sac- open concept huge living room too included vaulted ceiling beautiful island in the kitchen that overlooks living room for entertaining . Seller is a license realtor in the state of ga .

18. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2018-08-09
    listed $114,250
20. 2008-01-06
    soldstatus $175,000
21. 2007-05-10
    soldstatus $29,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $654 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,493 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,839/yr (+$153/mo · 281.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,180
• − Property taxes: −$654
• − Insurance: −$1,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$7,884
• Taxable loss: −$2,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$586
• After-tax cash flow: $2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumbranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #18664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+841.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $275,000 HABR
• 2018-12-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-11-23 Sold (MLS) $174,900 HABR
• 2018-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Listed $185,000 HABR
• 2018-09-27 Listed $189,985 Hive MLS
• 2018-09-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 HABR
• 2018-08-09 Listed $114,250 HABR
• 2008-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $29,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $654 · -77.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.