734 Meadow Creek Ln · Josephine, TX 75189

$263,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 7,275 sqft lot $148/sqft · 11% below area Est $298k · 11% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Magnolia subdivision in Josephine, this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage offers approximately 1,785 square feet of open layout designed for easy entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large center island with seating, gas range, stainless appliances, and abundant cabinet space, all overlooking the main living and dining areas. The primary suite offers a quiet escape while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with room to play, garden, or entertain, along with a covered patio perfect for relaxing outdoors. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby schools, shopping, and commuting routes.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Stainless appliances
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1886 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,500 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,983
• List price: $263,900
• Delta: -11.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Meadow Creek Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,835 (+3%)	2mo	$257,899	$141	92
707 Farmstead Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,914 (+7%)	2mo	$249,999	$131	77
313 Riverbrook Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,791 (+0%)	3mo	$316,990	$177	73
802 Rustic Way	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,577 (-12%)	2mo	$232,500	$147	72
308 Saw Mill Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,577 (-12%)	1mo	$239,999	$152	71
1313 Emi Kate Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,785 (0%)	2mo	$277,000	$155	69
702 Cistern Way	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+0%)	1mo	$270,000	$151	65
508 Northern Red Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+7%)	4mo	$279,990	$146	61
602 Mallard Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,903 (+7%)	2mo	$264,000	$139	59
214 Pennington Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-2%)	4mo	$339,900	$195	58
500 Murray Ct	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+6%)	0mo	$314,900	$166	58
902 Willowbanks Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,038 (+14%)	1mo	$349,000	$171	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-68,527
• Equity at exit: $39,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-109,585
• Equity at exit: $22,817

Cash invested: $73,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 117 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $276,990 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1886
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$573 /mo · $6,880/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $210,500

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-228	+0% $-302	+5% $-377	+10% $-452
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-393	+0% $-302	+5% $-212	+10% $-121
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-235	base $-302	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,975
• Closing costs: $7,917
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,300	$1.35	72d	1	0.05mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	100d	1	0.05mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	31d	1	0.05mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	95d	1	0.07mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,000	$1.09	64d	1	0.07mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	103d	1	0.07mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	139d	1	0.08mi
517 Milo Way Royse City, TX	5.0	2.0	2064	$1,805	$0.87	12d	1	0.14mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	103d	1	0.16mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	49d	1	0.16mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	79d	1	0.17mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	6d	1	0.21mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,050	$0.99	81d	1	0.21mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,100	$0.89	67d	1	0.23mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,050	$0.99	74d	1	0.23mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,035	$0.98	18d	1	0.23mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	18d	1	0.25mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	108d	1	0.25mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,900	$1.21	85d	1	0.26mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	59d	1	0.27mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	54d	1	0.27mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	3d	1	0.27mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	120d	1	0.28mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	139d	1	0.28mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	20d	1	0.36mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	89d	1	0.40mi
1208 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$2,400	$1.15	10d	1	0.50mi
315 Pennington Rd Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	0.53mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,856	$0.99	59d	1	0.53mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	71d	1	0.55mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$1,895	$1.03	7d	1	0.55mi
310 Pennington Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1977	$1,900	$0.96	24d	1	0.56mi
1210 Honeysuckle Dr Josephine, TX	5.0	2.0	1995	$1,995	$1.00	67d	1	0.56mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	84d	1	0.57mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	139d	1	0.58mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	6d	1	0.58mi
1208 Fieldstone Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	139d	1	0.60mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,900	$1.24	139d	1	0.64mi
508 Windrow Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,875	$1.22	120d	1	0.64mi
711 Cistern Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2081	$1,975	$0.95	103d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail $48/mo · $576/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $263,900 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $263,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $263,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $263,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $263,900 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $263,900 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $263,900 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $263,900 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $263,900 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $263,900 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $263,900 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $263,900 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $263,900 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $263,900 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $263,900 Active 178 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $263,900 Active 174 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $263,900 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $263,900 Active 171 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $263,900 Active 170 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $263,900 Active 169 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $263,900 Active 168 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $264,000 Active 167 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $264,000 Active 166 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $264,000 Active 165 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $264,000 Active 164 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $264,000 Active 163 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $264,000 Active 162 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $264,000 Active 161 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $264,000 Active 160 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $264,000 Active 159 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $264,000 Active 158 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $264,000 Active 157 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $264,000 Active 156 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $264,000 Active 155 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,000 Active 154 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,000 Active 153 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,000 Active 152 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,000 Active 151 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,000 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,000 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,000 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,000 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,000 Active 143 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,000 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $264,000 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $264,000 Active 138 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,000 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,000 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,783
• − Property taxes: −$6,880
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$7,677
• Taxable loss: −$8,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,925–$26,775 screening

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Magnolia subdivision is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a well-maintained interior and exterior, making it a good candidate for cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale paint interior — fresh paint improves aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-10-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-10-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $289,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+64.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,880 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.