10205 Sierra Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 5,501 sqft lot Est $164k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent opportunity for investors looking to renovate and add value in the growing 77051 area. This 3–4 bedroom, 1 bath ranch-style home offers a flexible floor plan with an enclosed garage that can serve as a second living area, game room, or possible 4th bedroom. The kitchen and bathroom both feature granite countertops, and the HVAC system and water heater were replaced in 2022. The property has been used as a rental for the past four years and offers great rental potential for investors looking to add to their portfolio. The home will require repairs and updates, including roof replacement and foundation work, making it an ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity. Property is being sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller will make no repairs. Inspection will be for informational purposes only.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Covered carport
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY BATH
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED CARPORT
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1955; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Driveway; Converted garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,441/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,123 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10205 Sierra Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,151 (+2%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	94
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+4%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	86
3334 Dulcrest St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-0%)	3mo	$90,000	$80	85
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,244 (+10%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	76
3034 Corksie St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+9%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	69
10014 Sierra Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (+10%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	68
10611 Leitrim Way	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,105 (-2%)	0mo	$159,900	$145	62
3018 Elpyco St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+8%)	1mo	$187,000	$154	60
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+7%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	60
3110 Brisbane St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,103 (-2%)	3mo	$125,000	$113	58
10818 Carlton Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+10%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	52
3022 Groton Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+13%)	6mo	$199,000	$157	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $99,713
• Equity at exit: $184,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $310,749
• Equity at exit: $398,270

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,477/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,730

Max offer price $164,676

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.19mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	11d	1	0.55mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.60mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	24d	1	0.61mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	0.79mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	0.95mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	2d	1	0.96mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	3d	2	0.99mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	1.06mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	43d	1	1.10mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	1.10mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.28mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.43mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	43d	1	1.44mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	5d	1	1.46mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $205,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,477 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,275/yr (+$106/mo · 51.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,477
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$6,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,477 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.